In today’s briefing:
- Japan Post Bank (7182) – Missed Opportunity Leaves Likely Shadow Overhang
- Japan Post Bank (7182 JP): A US$4.2 Billion Secondary Offering
- We Doctor Holdings IPO Preview: Explosive Growth and Narrowing Losses, The Right Time for an IPO
- Japan Post Bank US$4bn Placement – Smaller Deal, Similar Structure, Might Yield Similar Results
- Premier Energies US$825m IPO Lockup – The Largest Seller in the IPO Is Sitting on 48x Gains
- Korea FSS Shakes Up Rights Offerings – Special Review Rule Now Live
- We Doctor Holdings IPO: Some Thoughts on IPO Valuation Target Ahead of the Offering
- Visen Pharmaceuticals (维升药业) IPO: PHIP Updates Don’t Look Positive
Japan Post Bank (7182) – Missed Opportunity Leaves Likely Shadow Overhang
- The Offering comes in lighter than expected. The buyback is smaller than expected. The resultant overhang is larger than expected.
- The index flows around the delivery date are well-understood. They are what they are.
- Shareholder structure is such that this is not quite a new IPO but needs a lot of new shareholders. BUT… there is one redeeming feature one should not ignore.
Japan Post Bank (7182 JP): A US$4.2 Billion Secondary Offering
- Japan Post Bank (7182 JP) has announced a secondary offering of up to 416.1 million shares (including overallotment), worth around US$4.2 billion.
- The offering includes a ToSTNeT-3 and an on-market buyback. Including the overallotment, Japan Post Holdings (6178 JP) will reduce its stake from 61.50% to 50.00% of voting rights.
- Understanding the potential offer price requires looking at JPH’s past sales and recent large Japanese placements. The pricing date is likely 10 March.
We Doctor Holdings IPO Preview: Explosive Growth and Narrowing Losses, The Right Time for an IPO
- We Doctor Holdings, a top-tier provider of AI-enabled medical services and digital platform which connects hospitals, doctors, and pharmacies, plans to go public in Hong Kong.
- We Doctor Holdings has raised ~$1.5B to date from investors, including Tencent, 5Y Capital, Goldman Sachs, Hillhouse Capital, AIA, and Qiming Venture Partners, among others.
- The Hangzhou-based healthtech company has delivered explosive revenue growth of 107% y/y for the six months ended Jun-24.
Japan Post Bank US$4bn Placement – Smaller Deal, Similar Structure, Might Yield Similar Results
- Japan Post Holdings (6178 JP) (JPH) aims to sell around US$4bn worth of Japan Post Bank (7182 JP) (JPB), trimming its stake to below 50%.
- JPH had last sold around US$9bn worth of JPB shares in Mar 2023. That deal had a similar structure and it didn’t end up performing well.
- In this note, we talk about the deal dynamics and run the deal through our ECM framework.
Premier Energies US$825m IPO Lockup – The Largest Seller in the IPO Is Sitting on 48x Gains
- Premier Energies raised around US$337m after pricing the deal at the top end of the range in Sep 2024. Its IPO linked lockup is set to expire soon.
- Premier Energies is a manufacturer of solar photovoltaic (PV) cells, and solar modules. It also executes engineering, procurement, and construction (EPC) projects and provides follow-up operation and maintenance (O&M) services
- In this note, we will talk about the lockup dynamics and possible placement.
Korea FSS Shakes Up Rights Offerings – Special Review Rule Now Live
- With this new rule, the FSS is flagging shaky rights offerings early, signaling a likely correction request—and often, the first step toward the deal getting axed.
- Spot the red flags early and use the window before the FSS drops the hammer to position for a reversal play.
- The FSS’s early notice makes a reversal likely as traders bet on the deal getting nuked after the initial disclosure drop.
We Doctor Holdings IPO: Some Thoughts on IPO Valuation Target Ahead of the Offering
- According to PHIP and Crunchbase, We Doctor’s most recently reported valuation was a ~$411M Series F led by HongShan Capital and Millennium Management at a ~$6.7B post-money valuation.
- My ballpark estimates suggest that IPO valuation target may be below last round valuation. However, I do not expect a significant discount to Series F post-money valuation of ~$6.7B.
- I think investors will ask what is the revenue growth trajectory ahead (FY25-FY28) and why gross profit margins can’t be higher? What is the path to positive free cash flow?
Visen Pharmaceuticals (维升药业) IPO: PHIP Updates Don’t Look Positive
- Visen Pharmaceuticals is looking at raising up to USD 300m to list in Hong Kong.
- The company has passed the hearing for the listing and filed a new version of the prospectus.
- We look at the difference between previous filing and current filing. Most of the changes are not critical but we think overall it doesn’t look good.
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