In today’s briefing:
- Antofagasta Plc (ANTO LN): : H1 FY2026 Results, Guidance Rebased On Weather, Thesis Intact
- Morning Market Notes: Perhaps Famous Last Words, But We Believe CL Prices To Be Rangebound From Here
- Global Base Oils Supply Falls To 13-Month Low In May
- Oil futures: Crude eases as US stock build offsets Hormuz risk
- Shell Isn’t Leaving Green Energy; It’s Raising the Bar
- Shalimar Paints Restructuring: Infra.Market Reverse-Listing
- How Much Did Hess Really Add to Chevron’s Q2?
- Tata Steel Is Repricing the Value of Its Iron Ore Moat
- Hangzhou CIEC Group (CIEC HK): Synthetic Expert Call Transcript (14 Aug 2026)
- Global Base Oils Cargo Flows: Week To 14 August
Antofagasta Plc (ANTO LN): : H1 FY2026 Results, Guidance Rebased On Weather, Thesis Intact
- H1 FY26 EBITDA rose 27% to $2.84bn on a 36% higher realized copper price, with margin widening five points to 63.4%, among the sector’s highest.
- Group copper guidance cut to 625-655kt on the Los Pelambres weather event, but every asset-level line, gold, molybdenum, and capex guidance is unchanged.
- FY26e EV/EBITDA of 8.6x falling to 7.6x FY27e, P/E 25.7x to 22.5x, on FY27e copper sales of 762.5kt.
Morning Market Notes: Perhaps Famous Last Words, But We Believe CL Prices To Be Rangebound From Here
- In the context of yesterday’s discussion, we are increasingly confident that our long-standing estimated trading range for the prompt NYMEX crude oil contract will remain intact.
- Once again, our estimated peak has been around $88.00 per barrel with the trough at roughly $68.00 per barrel.
- In terms of the trough, our Base Case still expects the fourth quarter to average $68.25 per barrel, versus a temporary bottom during any period of volatility.
Global Base Oils Supply Falls To 13-Month Low In May
- Asia and China accounted for 55% of global supply, maintaining a share above 50% for the ninth straight month despite lower regional output.
- Global demand rose by more than 4% in May, but growth slowed to its weakest pace in 11 months as stock-building eased.
- The global surplus held below year-earlier levels for the eighth time in nine months, with the January-May surplus down by about 35% from the same period in 2025.
Oil futures: Crude eases as US stock build offsets Hormuz risk
- Oil futures were drifting lower on Thursday as a sharp increase in US crude inventories and weaker global demand forecasts offset continuing supply concerns linked to restricted traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.
- At 2020 London time Oct26 ICE Brent was down 2.4% at $86.88 / b , while Sep26 NYMEX WTI dropped $2.6% to $81.09/b .
- The declines had narrowed from earlier in the Asian session after Brent and WTI fell by more than 2%.
Shell Isn’t Leaving Green Energy; It’s Raising the Bar
- Shell isn’t abandoning the energy transition. It is reallocating capital toward gas, LNG and upstream, betting that stronger returns can finally close its valuation gap with US peers.
- Under Wael Sawan, Shell has been focusing on tighter capital discipline, bigger buybacks and fewer low-return green assets, with growth centred on gas.
- Shell’s green retreat is less about abandoning renewables and more about following returns. The bigger question is whether this sharper strategy can finally unlock a U.S.-style valuation.
Shalimar Paints Restructuring: Infra.Market Reverse-Listing
- Shalimar’s board approved a share-swap investment in Hella Infra Market, issuing up to 41.70 crore equity shares and 81.12 crore CCPS at 85, together worth ~10,439.9 crore in non-cash consideration.
- Hella/Infra.Market is vastly larger than Shalimar. Hella shareholders are reported to emerge with more than 77% of Shalimar, making the listed paints company the public-market vehicle for the enlarged platform.
- The stock is no longer an earnings-turnaround story alone. Valuation now depends on Hella stake actually acquired, swap ratio, CCPS conversion, cross-holding treatment, QIP dilution and the eventual legal “unification”.
How Much Did Hess Really Add to Chevron’s Q2?
- Hess added roughly 455 MBOED from Guyana and the Bakken, accounting for most of Chevron’s 20% production growth and sharply lifting international upstream earnings.
- Chevron delivered USD 1.5 billion in annual Hess synergies, 50% above its original target, while reaching USD 3 billion in structural cost savings six months early.
- Hess was the biggest driver of Q2, but higher oil prices and one-off gains also helped. The key test is whether Chevron can sustain these gains.
Tata Steel Is Repricing the Value of Its Iron Ore Moat
- Tata Steel is moving beyond captive mining at higher cost, weighing ownership against economics and keeping flexibility to source ore wherever returns are better.
- The company is targeting approval-based, high-specification markets such as shipbuilding, oil & gas, and data centres, where specialised products are less commoditised and offer greater value capture.
- UK operations are edging closer to EBITDA breakeven as steel prices rise, while the Netherlands remains weighed down by weak demand, elevated inventories and regulatory hurdles.
Hangzhou CIEC Group (CIEC HK): Synthetic Expert Call Transcript (14 Aug 2026)
- Hangzhou CIEC’s IPO is driven by severe liquidity and working capital pressures, as evidenced by its massive operating cash flow deficit of -RMB 4.82 billion in 2025 and -RMB 2.27 billion in the first five months of 2026. The urgent August 11, 2026 HKEX refiling—just days after the initial February application lapsed—highlights the immediate need to unlock offshore credit lines.
- The reported gross margins of 0.6% in 2025 are highly deceptive because the company’s core business relies on basis trading (基差交易). While physical transactions are recorded at razor-thin margins, the true economic spread is captured in the derivative books, which yielded RMB 2.08 billion in 2025 but swung to a RMB 584 million loss in early 2026 due to extreme commodity price volatility.
- The company’s risk management and hedging framework is under severe strain, as highlighted by the RMB 170.5 million foreign exchange loss in 2025 and a further RMB 151.5 million loss in the first five months of 2026. High leverage (asset-liability ratio of 81.74% as of May 2026) and a massive inventory buildup of RMB 23.20 billion as of June 12, 2026, expose the company to significant market downcycles.
Disclaimer: The following transcripts are synthetic, AI-generated on demand, and compiled exclusively from public data sources; no real-word experts were actually interviewed. This content is designed to highlight potential market mispricings, explore compelling lines of inquiry, and suggest strategic questions rather than present verified facts. All specific financial metrics and data points, including market shares, TAM, margins, and growth rates, are AI-estimated approximations. They may be inaccurate and must be independently verified.
Global Base Oils Cargo Flows: Week To 14 August
- Cargo loadings from Taiwan slowed, after a surge in shipments in late July and early August, with one cargo moving to China in recent days.
- A cargo loaded from South Korea in second-half June and reached Brazil in recent days, after a stop in South Africa.
- A large cargo loaded from Singapore in the past week before heading to Fujairah, UAE, set to arrive in second-half August; it is the first such shipment to the UAE since March.
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