Daily Brief Energy/Materials: BHP Group Ltd, Natural Gas, Jiangsu Lopal Tech, Crude Oil, Mast Energy Developments, Akzo Nobel NV, Suzano , Magna Terra Minerals , SolarBank and more

• Context: The BHP Group (BHP AU) vs. Rio Tinto (RIO AU) price ratio has deviated more than two standard deviations from its one-year average, presenting a potential relative value opportunity.
• Highlights: Going long BHP Group (BHP AU) and short Rio Tinto (RIO AU) targets a 4% return.
• Why Read: Essential for quantitative traders seeking mean-reversion opportunities, with detailed execution framework, risk management protocols, and historical simulation showing the statistical basis for this relative value play.

• Surging U.S. LNG exports, stronger power demand, and shifting weather models have tightened fundamentals, driving Henry Hub futures to near three-year highs despite record output and above-average storage levels.
• Henry Hub’s rally since mid-October has been driven by record LNG exports and colder winter forecasts, which outweighed rising U.S. production and above-average storage levels.
• Options positioning shows short-term caution but growing medium-term optimism, with higher call interest across later contracts signaling expectations for firmer Henry Hub prices into early-2026.

• Jiangsu Lopal Tech is undergoing a significant strategic pivot from its traditional automotive fine chemicals business to the high-growth, yet volatile, lithium iron phosphate (LFP) cathode materials market for electric vehicle (EV) batteries.
• This transition has fueled exceptional revenue growth but has also led to severe profitability challenges, with the company posting significant net losses and negative margins over the past two years, driven by raw material price volatility and intense competition.
• The company’s financial health is under pressure, evidenced by negative operating cash flow in recent periods and a net current liability position. Future success hinges on stabilizing LFP profitability, managing cash flow, and navigating the highly competitive dynamics of the EV supply chain.

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• Crude oil futures ended lower Monday despite rebounding from a soft start in response to reports crude loadings had resumed at the Black Sea port of Novorossiysk.
• Front-month Jan25 ICE Brent futures were trading at $64.09/b (2031 GMT) versus Friday’s settle of $64.39/b, while Dec25 NYMEX WTI settled at $59.91/b against a previous close of $60.09/b.
• Ship tracking data showed two oil tankers had docked at Novorossiysk over the weekend, while Reuters quoted local officials saying that crude loadings had resumed following Friday’s drone strikes.

• Quantum Data Energy (MAST.L) delivers flexible, modular power solutions to the UK grid and AI datacentres worldwide.
• QDE is targeting 1GW of new generation by 2030.
• Our current value range is based only on 150MW and on our expected dilution of 223m shares.

• In this edition: • AkzoNobel | proposes merger with Axalta in an all share deal

• Suzano’s 3Q25 results were soft but broadly in line, with pulp volumes and prices weighing on margins. Healthier pricing and cost discipline should support gradual margin recovery.
• We upgrade the 2031 notes to Overweight after spreads widened 21 bps, creating more attractive relative value versus LatAm BBB peers and Suzano’s own curve.
• We expect improving pulp prices, Ribas cost efficiencies, and disciplined capital allocation to strengthen margins, liquidity, and deleveraging capacity over the next 9–12 months.

• Crude oil futures ended higher after a soft trading session earlier when immediate concerns around disruptions to Russian crude receded as loadings resumed from the crucial Novorossiysk port.
• Front-month Jan26 ICE Brent futures were last trading at $65/b (2017 GMT) versus Monday’s settle of $64.20/b, while Dec25 NYMEX WTI was at $60.78/b against a previous close of $59.91/b.
• Benchmarks have struggled in the early part of the week after loadings resumed from the key Black Sea oil hub following a two-day suspension in the wake of drone strikes.

• MTT extended copper mineralization at the Humbers Hughes Lake Trend by another 1.7km, bringing the total potential strike length to 3.9km.
• Rock sampling returned up to 0.545% Cu, with ~30% of the samples >500 ppm Cu, supporting a broad copper footprint at Hughes Lake.
• The expanded soil and rock dataset builds on earlier work and highlights a new SW copper target along the now 8km+ Trend.

• PowerBank reported first-quarter results that exceeded our expectations on the top and bottom line.
• Quarterly revenues will remain uneven as the company transitions to become an independent power producer over the coming years.
• Near-term demand should remain strong in the US solar market ahead of the expiration of the solar investment tax credit, but the outlook is less certain beyond 2026.