Daily Brief Energy/Materials: Crude Oil, Young Poong, Coal India Ltd, SGX Rubber Future TSR20, GCC SAB de CV, Rayonier Advanced Materials, Arq, Toyobo Co Ltd and more

• Brent oil price is currently 7% below fair value with short-term technical indicators in oversold territory
• Forecast predicts Brent oil to average $73 in 2025, with a surplus in global oil market of 1.3 million barrels per day
• Market consensus diverges from forecast, with disagreements on oil balances and optimism towards non-OPEC supply growth

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• On 10 March, Young Poong (000670 KS) announced that it plans to cancel all of its treasury shares and conduct a 10-to-1 stock split.
• Driven by the treasury shares cancellation and stock split, Young Poong’s share price rose 8.9% to 489,000 won today (10 March 2025). 
• Our updated NAV of Young Poong suggests NAV per share of 834,064 per share, representing a 71% upside from current levels.

• COAL’s production growth during Apr-Feb 25 has slowed to 1.5% yoy due to a high base effect and is unlikely to grow significantly in the near future
• Regulated pricing mechanism means low correlation to international price movements. E-auction (10-12% of volumes) prices crash -25% yoy in line with international trends, impacting profitability
• Single digit PE is in line with historic multiples. Wage renegotiations due in June 2026, rising coal production from captive producers, surge in renewable capacities are headwinds

• Output hits 2.04 million tons and exports 1.6 million tons in 2024  
• ANRPC anticipates Indo rubber production to slip by 9.8% in 2025  
• Chinese tire firms pitching tent in Indo may benefit from trade war

• Although the environment was challenging (still bad weather conditions and higher comps), the Cement Industry’s quarterly results were better than expected.
• Higher costs were compensated by the companies’ efficiencies and higher prices in local currencies, resulting in the sector’s margin expansion.
• Total revenues in 4Q24 decreased by 5% YoY, while total EBITDA dropped 3% YoY.

• Strong 4Q24 caps off a year of continuous improvement. RYAM reported 4Q24 results that included record EBITDA of $62 million in its HPC division despite lower revenue on reduced sales of commodity products.
• For the year, the company delivered $222 million in EBITDA and 13.4% EBITDA margin, up significantly from 2023 EBITDA of $139 million and 8.3% EBITDA margin, reflecting the positive outcome of management’s decision to reduce exposure to commodity markets and invest in growth of specialty businesses, especially in Biomaterials.
• The strong results came despite still soft acetates demand and only modest growth in ethers, as margins benefited from cost optimization investments that resulted in lower unit production costs and optimized efficiencies.

• ARQ management was upbeat during the 2024 results call. ASPs have been on the rise and ARQ is expanding into new end- use markets: (1) cost initiatives are bearing fruit;
• (2) Phase 1 granular activated carbon (GAC) expansion is on track and production could exceed nameplate capacity;
• (3) ARQ is positioned for future expansion with its strong balance sheet and cash flow

• Q3 FY3/25 results showed strong OP recovery (+23.3% YoY), fuelled by price hikes, volume expansion, and cost reduction efforts.
• Although the OP run rate was 60% of the full-year target, relatively low for Q3, reflecting one-off costs, FY3/25 guidance was maintained.
• By segment, Films was the largest contributor to segment OP growth (+11.5x YoY), followed by Functional Textiles and Trading, which reduced its segment operating loss.