Daily Brief Energy/Materials: Glencore Plc, Alcoa , Base Oil, Iron Ore, Wheaton Precious Metals, Waaree Energies, Ring Energy Inc, Halliburton Co and more

• Glencore Plc (GLEN LN) currently ranks 77 in STOXX Europe50. If it ranks 75 or worse on 30 April, the security will be deleted via Fast-Exit on 7 May.
• Rolls-Royce Holdings (RR/ LN) is forecasted to be the replacement to the Fast-Exit deletion.
• Main forecasted addition and deletion candidates at the September 2025 annual review include Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria (BBVA SM) and Mercedes-Benz Group (MBG GR), respectively. 

• Lagged results: Q1 EPS surged 171% QoQ on aluminum price strength, offsetting alumina softness; EBITDA rose to $855M despite weaker volumes.
• Tariff overhang: $105M quarterly drag from Section 232 now embedded; net annual impact ~$100M—yet Midwest premium offsets buffer U.S. exposure.
• Trading near book at 1.04x P/B—cycle pessimism and policy risks may present contrarian upside.

• Global base oils prices stay firm vs feedstock/competing fuel prices.
• Firm base oils margins point to tight supply and strong demand.
• Firm base oils margins incentivize refiners to raise base oils output.

• Asia’s Group II base oils prices hold firm relative to prices in regional markets like northeast Asia so far this year.
• Asia’s Group II base oils prices hold firm relative to prices in more distant markets like Americas so far this year.
• Asia’s firm prices complicate arbitrage, reflecting tighter-than-usual regional supply late last year and in early-2025.

• China’s economy grew 5.4% in Q1 2025, matching Q4 2024 and beating forecasts, as manufacturers boosted exports ahead of Trump’s tariffs. 
• China’s March retail sales (+5.9% YoY) and factory output (+7.7% YoY) beat forecasts, accelerating from Jan-Feb growth as economic recovery gains momentum. 
• Iron ore inventories fell further in April, with both SMM and CISA reporting weekly drops. Weather-disrupted port operations tightened supply, supporting prices, though US-China trade tensions add demand uncertainty. 

Wheaton Precious Metals’ (WPM’s) Q125 financial results are scheduled for release on Thursday 8 May, after the market close in Toronto. Ahead of the release, we have updated our forecasts to reflect, in particular, an increase in production from Salobo from 60,109oz to 73,655oz, in line with the volume of copper produced according to Vale’s Q125 production report, released on 15 April. We have also assumed no further inventory build in Q1, after a 27,535oz gold equivalent increase in Q424 (against the historical trend). Including an adjustment for prices as well, these changes have resulted in a 17.4% increase to our Q125 adjusted EPS estimate and a 10.7% increase to our FY25 estimate.

• Waaree Energies (WAAREEEN IN) raised around US$514m in its India IPO in October 2024. The lockup on its pre-IPO investors is set to expire soon.
• Waaree Energies is a solar PV module manufacturer in India with an aggregate installed capacity of 12 GW, as of Jun 2024.
• In this note, we will talk about the lockup dynamics and possible placement.

• On April 17, 2025, Ring announced that 1Q25 oil production exceeded the high end of guidance and that total production exceeded the midpoint of guidance.
• For 1Q25, the oil production guidance range was 11,700-12,000 Bo/d and the midpoint total production guidance was 18,250.
• Since oil represents more than 95% of total revenue, the oil outperformance has an outsized revenue impact.

• Seasonal rise in US base oils demand likely to be more muted as concern about economic slowdown incentivizes blenders to maintain lower stocks.
• Weak demand and rising surplus supply typically puts more pressure on export prices before domestic prices.
• US base oils domestic prices instead fall while export prices hold steady so far in April 2025.

• Halliburton will report its Q1 earnings on 22/Apr, with revenue and EPS projected to fall sequentially and annually due to weak activity in North America.
• Halliburton’s OI PCR at 0.86 signals neutral sentiment, while its IV percentile at 96% indicates high volatility.
• For the 25/Apr expiry, Halliburton’s OI shows calls concentrated at strikes 20, 25, and 27, while puts dominate at 19, 19.5, and 21.5, with higher put OI at key levels.