In today’s briefing:
- Gold Road Enters Scheme With Gold Fields
- Quiddity Leaderboard TDIV Jun25: US$2.5bn One-Way; Several High-Impact Flow Names
- Gold Road (GOR AU): Gold Fields (GFI SJ) Attractive Scheme Offer
- Gravita India: Expansion Momentum Amid Elevated Valuations
- Malaysia Betters Rubber Production, Finds A ‘Glove Avenue’ In US Tariff
- Asia base oils demand outlook: Week of 5 May
- Selected European HoldCos and DLC: April 2025 Report
- ArcelorMittal: Strengthening Core, Pivoting to Growth
- [US Crude Oil Options Weekly 2025/18] WTI Tumbles on OPEC Supply Boost and Economic Growth Fears
- Dairy and Food Oil Prices Continue to Push Food Prices Higher
Gold Road Enters Scheme With Gold Fields
- Back on the 24th March, Gold Road (GOR AU) rejected an unsolicited offer from Gold Fields (GFI SJ) of $2.27/share cash plus GOR’s effective interest in De Grey Mining (DEG AU).
- GFI has now bumped the cash terms to $2.52/share or an all-in price of ~A$3.40/share, a 43% premium to undisturbed. This includes a A$0.35/share fully franked dividend (if paid).
- Conditions include the standard Scheme vote plus FIRB. 7.5% of shares out are supportive. Implementation is expected in October 2025.
Quiddity Leaderboard TDIV Jun25: US$2.5bn One-Way; Several High-Impact Flow Names
- The TDIV index tracks the top 50 names in the Taiwan Stock Exchange with the highest dividend yields. It is a yield-weighted index with unique capping rules.
- In this insight, we take look at Quiddity’s expectations for index changes and capping flows for the TDIV Index for the June 2025 index rebal event.
- We expect five changes for the TDIV index and there could be index flows of US$2.5bn one-way due to capping.
Gold Road (GOR AU): Gold Fields (GFI SJ) Attractive Scheme Offer
- Gold Road Resources (GOR AU) has entered a scheme with Gold Fields Ltd (GFI SJ). The consideration is A$2.52 cash + value per share of Northern Star Resources (NST AU) stake.
- The proposal is a logical consolidation to eliminate dissynergies between the JV partners. The offer is attractive compared to peer multiples, precedent transactions and historical trading ranges.
- The vote is low-risk, with irrevocables representing 7.51% of the outstanding shares. At the last close and for an early October payment, the gross/annualised spread was 4.1%/10.0%.
Gravita India: Expansion Momentum Amid Elevated Valuations
- Gravita reported steady FY25 results with ~10% EBITDA margins, strong cash generation, and maintained a net cash position despite ongoing capex.
- Business mix is evolving with increasing aluminium recycling, higher Africa contribution, and new verticals like lithium-ion, aiming to double capacity by FY27.
- Valuations appear elevated but are supported by strong ROIC, clear growth visibility, and alignment with global ESG trends.
Malaysia Betters Rubber Production, Finds A ‘Glove Avenue’ In US Tariff
- February marks 18.7% NR yield growth MoM, 21.3% growth YoY
- Exports of NR too go up by an impressive 23.7% MoM
- Malaysian gloves set to upend China’s competition in US market
Asia base oils demand outlook: Week of 5 May
- Asia’s base oils demand likely to face more downward pressure as slowing industrial activity in key regional markets start to reflect impact of US tariffs.
- Demand already slowed amid uncertainty about impact of tariffs.
- Slowdown in demand highlights widespread repercussion of tariffs, even for products that are not directly impacted.
Selected European HoldCos and DLC: April 2025 Report
- Discounts to NAV of covered holdcos mainly widened during April. CF Alba was delisted following conclusion of the takeover acceptance period. Discounts: GBL, 35.3% as of 2 May (vs. 37.6%);
- Heineken Holding, 12.3% (vs. 11.2%); Industrivärden C, 9.1% (vs. 2.9%); Investor B, 5.8% (vs. 4.2%); Porsche Automobile Holding, 29.2% (vs. 31.9%); Rio DLC 25.8% (vs. 21.7%); Vivendi 40% (vs. 40.1%).
- What seems interesting (unchanged views): Porsche SE vs. listed assets and the Rio DLC (long RIO LN/short RIO AU).
ArcelorMittal: Strengthening Core, Pivoting to Growth
- Q1 showed resilient performance; Q2 EBITDA to rise on European spread recovery, healthy orders, and stable North America.
- Over 60% of future capex targets India; Hazira and Visakhapatnam expansions drive sharp volume and margin growth.
- Stock trades at deep 60–70% discount to Indian steelmakers despite growing India focus and structurally stronger EBITDA.
[US Crude Oil Options Weekly 2025/18] WTI Tumbles on OPEC Supply Boost and Economic Growth Fears
- WTI futures fell 7.5% for the week ending 02/May, weighed by OPEC supply hike and uncertainty over U.S.-China trade negotiations.
- The U.S. rig count fell by three to 584. The oil rig count fell by four to 479, while gas rigs grew by two to 101.
- WTI OI PCR inched up to 0.84 on 02/May from 0.82 on 25/Apr. Call OI rose by 7.1% WoW, while put OI increased by 8.9%.
Dairy and Food Oil Prices Continue to Push Food Prices Higher
- The FAO Food Price Index rose to 128.3 points in April 2025, up 1.2 points from March.
- Increases in the cereal, dairy and meat price indices outweighed decreases in those of sugar and vegetable oils.
- Overall, the FFPI was 9.0 points (7.6%) higher than its level a year ago but remained 31.9 points (19.9%) below its peak reached in March 2022.
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