In today’s briefing:
- JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP): IPO Fast-Entry 30% Away; Index Review Inclusion in Aug & Sep 2025
- Mongolia Mining (975 HK): Left Field Negative Catalyst
- Price Rise Keeps Indian Rubber Production Buoyant In 2024
- Ercros Takeover Battle: Regulatory Hurdles and Market Skepticism
- [ETP 2025/09] WTI Drops on Trade Tensions, Henry Hub Falls to Forecasts of Milder Temperatures
JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP): IPO Fast-Entry 30% Away; Index Review Inclusion in Aug & Sep 2025
- JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP) is scheduled to be listed on 19 March 2025, at the prime market of the Tokyo Stock Exchange at an expected valuation of ~$5.3bn.
- Fast-Entry inclusion for the one global index can take place on 25 March if the stock price surges by ~30% or more on the first trading day.
- Review inclusion given failed fast-entries for both global indices, is expected in August and September 2025.
Mongolia Mining (975 HK): Left Field Negative Catalyst
- Potentially damaging negative news has emerged in Mongolian Mining (975 HK) that could possibly result in the suspension of its mine or a review of conditions on the lease agreement.
- Prime Minister’s Order No. 32 established a Working Group to assess the mining license for the Tavan Tolgoi coal deposit and review earlier parliamentary and government resolutions.
- As the issue has become political, we are unsure about the outcome of this review and would stay on the sidelines until a firm resolution is reached.
Price Rise Keeps Indian Rubber Production Buoyant In 2024
- Production up 3.18% YoY and imports up 19.42% in 2024
- Production-Consumption gap 526,000 tons
- Commerce Minister dodges floor price plea by smallholders
Ercros Takeover Battle: Regulatory Hurdles and Market Skepticism
- Regulatory Scrutiny: The CNMC has launched Phase II investigations into both Bondalti’s and Esseco’s takeover bids for Ercros due to competition concerns, potentially delaying or complicating the acquisition process.
- Market Sentiment: With Ercros trading at €2.81, well below Esseco’s €3.745 bid, the gross spread of 33.3% and 20.5% deal probability indicate skepticism about the takeover’s success.
- In 2024, Ercros reported €667.4 million in sales, €29.4 million EBITDA, and a €11.7 million net loss, reflecting economic headwinds that could influence shareholders’ decisions on the competing takeover offers.
[ETP 2025/09] WTI Drops on Trade Tensions, Henry Hub Falls to Forecasts of Milder Temperatures
- For the week ending 21/Feb, U.S. crude inventories dropped by 2.3m barrels, contradicting expectations of a 2.5m barrel build. Gasoline stockpiles unexpectedly rose, while distillate stocks surged more than expected.
- U.S. natural gas inventories fell by 261 Bcf for the week ending 21/Feb, lower than analyst expectations of a 276 Bcf drawdown. Inventories are 11.5% below the 5-year seasonal average.
- BP pivots back to fossil fuels, cutting renewables and reducing its quarterly buyback to USD 0.75 billion from USD 1.75 billion. President Trump revoked Chevron’s license to operate in Venezuela.
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