In today’s briefing:
- Gold Miners ETF (GDX US): BIG Impact of Benchmark Change
- Adriatic Metals (ADT AU)/Dundee Metals (DPM CN): A Burgeoning Balkan Play
- Santos (STO AU): XRG’s Non-Binding Offer Faces an FIRB Challenge
- [Quiddity Index Jun25] KOSPI 200 Leaderboard for Dec25 Rebal: 4 In/Out But Too Early to Bet
- Kazatomprom: Largest Global Producer Well Positioned for Uranium Rebound
- Helixtap China Report: China Rubber Market Faces Continued Headwinds
- Jupiter Mines Takeover Potential, Wanda Hotel Special Dividend, and OCI Methanol Sale Near Completion
- Denison Mines (DML CN / DNN US) – Pre-Production Uranium Play with Strong Optionality
- NexGen Energy Ltd. (TSX: NXE, NYSE: NXE) – Advancing a World-Class Uranium Asset Toward Production
- National Energy Services Reunited Corp: FY25 Revenue Growth Expected to Be Second-Half Weighted
Gold Miners ETF (GDX US): BIG Impact of Benchmark Change
- The VanEck Gold Miners ETF/USA (GDX US) has announced a benchmark change from the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index to the MarketVector Global Gold Miners Index.
- That change will result in a bunch of constituent and weight changes in September. Estimated one-way turnover is 15.8% resulting in a one-way trade of US$3.1bn.
- The flow and turnover numbers will change following the June rebalance of the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index and the September rebalance of the MarketVector Global Gold Miners Index.
Adriatic Metals (ADT AU)/Dundee Metals (DPM CN): A Burgeoning Balkan Play
- Dual-Listed Adriatic Metals PLC (ADT AU) has announced a cash/scrip Offer from Dundee Precious Metals (DPM CN) with an implied Offer price of A$5.56/share, a 47.8% premium to undisturbed.
- Dundee is offering 0.1590 new Dundee shares per ADT share, plus 93 pence in cash. Roughly a 35:65 cash/scrip split for the Aussie listed line.
- Adriatic is incorporated in the UK so the Offer is being done by a UK Scheme. Irrevocables tally 37.23%. Clean deal.
Santos (STO AU): XRG’s Non-Binding Offer Faces an FIRB Challenge
- Santos Ltd (STO AU) has disclosed a “final” non-binding proposal from the XRG consortium at US$5.76 (A$8.89), a 27.7% premium to the undisturbed price of A$6.96 (13 June).
- The offer is subject to several regulatory approvals. FIRB approval is the primary risk due to a foreign government-controlled entity controlling critical domestic infrastructure assets.
- The offer is attractive compared to peer multiples and historical trading ranges. Retail has a mixed view on the offer, which should not be an issue for the vote.
[Quiddity Index Jun25] KOSPI 200 Leaderboard for Dec25 Rebal: 4 In/Out But Too Early to Bet
- KOSPI 200 is a Korean blue-chip index that tracks the 200 largest and most-liquid names listed in the KOSPI section of the Korea Exchange (KRX).
- In this insight, we take a look at the names leading the race to become ADDs and DELs during the next semiannual review in December 2025.
- We expect up to 4 ADDs and 4 DELs in the KOSPI 200 index during the December 2025 index rebal event based on the latest available data.
Kazatomprom: Largest Global Producer Well Positioned for Uranium Rebound
- U.S. political moves last month backing nuclear power are part of a long-term secular trend of increasing global support for the industry which could drive a uranium rebound
- A nearly 40% uranium slump from early 2024 to March 2025 has priced in a significant degree of the industry’s challenges, and a price recovery has started
- As the world’s largest producer, Kazatomprom is well positioned for a rise in uranium, it has lagged the recent sector rebound, and trades at a moderate 1.4x P/B ratio
Helixtap China Report: China Rubber Market Faces Continued Headwinds
- Physical-to-INE spreads indicate sluggish near-term demand
- Rising availability and tepid downstream suggests prices may remain under pressure
- April’s import and export data highlights the caution in the market
Jupiter Mines Takeover Potential, Wanda Hotel Special Dividend, and OCI Methanol Sale Near Completion
- Jupiter Mines (JMS:AX) potential takeover: JV sale valued Tshipi mine at A$0.315/share, 60% above current trading levels.
- OCI N.V. (OCI:AS) nearing methanol business sale completion: US$1.2bn cash, 9.9 million MEOX shares, €8/share net cash position.
- Mayne Pharma (MYX:AX) merger dispute: Cosette issued termination notice, MYX denies allegations, court hearing scheduled for September 9.
Denison Mines (DML CN / DNN US) – Pre-Production Uranium Play with Strong Optionality
- Denison’s core asset is the Phoenix ISR project within the Wheeler River property, offering high-grade reserves and low projected costs in Canada’s Athabasca Basin.
- First production is targeted for 2028, with ramp-up to 6.5M lbs U₃O₈ by 2030, contingent on timely permitting and funding.
- While trading at a premium to in-situ reserve value, the stock reflects early-mover ISR potential, but remains exposed to development, financing, and uranium price risks.
NexGen Energy Ltd. (TSX: NXE, NYSE: NXE) – Advancing a World-Class Uranium Asset Toward Production
- NexGen is preparing to begin construction of its fully permitted Rook I uranium project, targeting production by late 2027.
- Rook I offers 29.2 Mlbs/year output at US$9.98/lb, among the industry’s lowest costs. With 240 Mlbs in reserves and 24-year mine life, it ranks as a top-tier long-duration uranium asset.
- Valuation premium reflects low cost, high-grade profile, and uranium demand tailwinds—but hinges on timely permits, financing, and execution.
National Energy Services Reunited Corp: FY25 Revenue Growth Expected to Be Second-Half Weighted
- NESR’s revenue growth is expected to gain momentum in 2H25 based on the expectation of seasonal activity increases in core markets and the potential award of additional pressure pumping business in Saudi Arabia.
- Saudi Arabia is engaged in a tender process for multi-year pressure pumping awards to support the company’s ambition to significantly increase unconventional natural gas production in the Kingdom.
- NESR currently has one frac fleet deployed in the field and hopes to be awarded additional business that could build a several-year backlog.
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