Daily Brief Equity Bottom-Up: Long Macquarie (MQG AU) Vs. Short NAB (NAB AU): A Quant-Driven Pair Trade and more

• Context: The Macquarie Group (MQG AU) over National Australia Bank (NAB AU) price-ratio has deviated two standard deviations from its one-year average, presenting a potential relative value opportunity.
• Highlights: The pair is trading just at the border of the 2 standard deviation threshold which triggers the trade open signal. Monitor to find a good entry point.
• Why Read: Essential for quantitative traders seeking mean-reversion opportunities, with detailed execution framework, risk management protocols, and historical simulation showing the statistical basis for this relative value play.

• Beike (BEKE) reported C2Q25 top line, non-GAA op. profit and GAAP net income (2.5%), (43%) and (3.0%) vs. our est. 
• Since a strong start in C1Q25, both new and existing home sales growth have trended down after early March, against a weak 2024. 
• We cut TP by US$1 to US$24 and maintain BUY.

• Nvidia beat revenue expectations by 1.5% with $46.7 billion in revenue; data centre growth underwhelmed, with compute slipping sequentially.
• Blackwell is ramping at full speed, while Rubin’s six chips have already taped out at TSMC, keeping Nvidia’s annual launch cadence intact.
• Inventory jumped to $15B, and China licenses remain uncertain, leaving little margin for error.

• Glencore Plc (GLEN LN) shares are down 15.3% YTD and remains undervalued relative to peers. Asset optimisation, buybacks & dividends to drive its share prices higher.
• Firm has identified USD 1 billion in annual cost savings, with at least 50% expected to be realized in the second half of 2025.
• The company has reiterated its commitment to shareholder returns via USD 1 billion buyback and USD 1 billion through dividend payout.

• The Engineered Materials segment, driven by AI/5G-linked products like MicroThin™ and FaradFlex®, is poised for strong growth, offsetting near-term Metals segment weakness.
• A forward valuation of ~17× P/E and ~7.5× EV/EBITDA, supported by strong growth in MicroThin™ and the scaling of FaradFlex®, is broadly in line with peers.
• Key risks include metals price volatility, execution delays in FaradFlex®/MicroThin™ ramp-up, and intensifying competition from Asian copper foil and laminate producers.

Key points (machine generated)

• Trinseo has historically been viewed as a high-risk investment due to its troubled history and significant leverage.
• Recent improvements in its balance sheet and liquidity position, including over $450 million available through 2025, indicate a potential shift in investment outlook.
• The alignment of bid-ask expectations for asset sales suggests a positive recovery potential for Trinseo in the next 12-18 months.

This article is sourced from an online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.

• Grasim Industries (GRASIM IN) ‘s Birla Opus rolled out “Birla Opus Assurance”— India’s first 1-year free repainting program covering various defects.
• This is just another marketing technique, aimed at capturing market share from existing players. Because of the cut throat competition, other players are expected to launch similar programs.
• Ultimately, this would lead to higher warranty provisioning as well as higher A&P spends, thereby impacting the margins. But in long run, we expect warranty claims to be modest.

Key points (machine generated)

• Global Tax Free Co (GTF) holds a 70% market share in South Korea and 25% in Singapore for VAT refund services.
• The company is recovering from a failed acquisition due to fraud and aims to expand into Japan and Thailand in the next 18 months.
• Founded in 2005 and acquired by a SPAC in 2017, Chairman Mr. Moon Yang-Geun owns an 18.7% stake in GTF.

This article is sourced from an online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.

• Apple Secures Over Half of TSMC’s Cutting-Edge 2nm Capacity; How TSMC Anchors Apple’s Product Leadership Strategy
• NVIDIA Results Key Take-Away: Long-Reasoning AI Models Driving Massive Compute Demand
• Intel (INTC.US): Intel–U.S. Government Equity Deal: Implications and Industry Perspective 

• Results are steady. Revenues are flat with gross profit marginally down.
• There are 2 exceptions : S $5.5 mn impairment on PPE at Nantong due to economic slowdown and fx loss of US $5.5 mn
• Declares 2 cents dividend, ROE of 10% on Balance Sheet which has 30% excess cash and Book Value of Cash S$ 1.46