In today’s briefing:
- A/H Premium Tracker (To 25 July 2025): “Beautiful Skew” Raging Onward
- [Japan M&A] – KKR Launches Still-Too-Light Topcon (7732) Deal
- HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 25 July 2025); Multi-Month High Volumes, Net Buying of Financials
- NSDL (NSDL IN) IPO: Offering Details & Index Inclusion Timeline
- ProSiebenSat.1: MFE Raises Offer, Reducing Arbitrage Upside and Shifting Risk Profile
- Ainsworth Game Technology (AGI AU): 29th August Vote On Novomatic’s “Low-Balled Offer”
- Assura: Bid Floor in Place, Upside Optionality Hinges on Revised PHP Terms or Auction Outcome
- SSI Newsletter: PMVP Trial Catalyst, YORKU Trading Split, CPPTL Extension, GLXZ Merger, LUNA Updates
A/H Premium Tracker (To 25 July 2025): “Beautiful Skew” Raging Onward
- AH premia down again among liquid names but “beautiful skew” of wide premia converging more than narrow premia continues bigly. It still pays well to be long wide H discounts.
- This is the most significant 60-day AH pair average H outperformance in five years, maybe ever. Remarkable.
- The data tables below update on a daily basis in the Tools section of Smartkarma. The SOUTHBOUND Flow Monitor and AH Monitor are both there free for SK readers.
[Japan M&A] – KKR Launches Still-Too-Light Topcon (7732) Deal
- In December-2024, this deal was mooted and it came out as expected. But the implied growth in management forecasts was higher than expected so the price came in quite light.
- In March when the deal was announced, it seemed like a tough call, but three weeks later Value Act decided they would tender, but would reinvest in the back end.
- The deal is now approved, and launches tomorrow. It gets done, I expect, but it is not a model deal other than being one showing the loopholes available to buyers.
HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 25 July 2025); Multi-Month High Volumes, Net Buying of Financials
- Gross SOUTHBOUND volumes US$20+bn a day this past 5-day week. Best in months. Net buying strong at +US$800mm a day.
- Among the top buys as a percentage of volume, Non-bank FINANCIALS stood out, dramatically. Tech-y CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY was sold. SOEs stand out on the sell side. Again.
- The data tables below update on a daily basis in the Tools section of Smartkarma. The SOUTHBOUND Flow Monitor and AH Monitor are both there free for SK readers.
NSDL (NSDL IN) IPO: Offering Details & Index Inclusion Timeline
- NSDL (NSDL IN) is looking to list on the exchanges by selling up to INR 40bn (US$464m) of stock at a valuation of up to INR 160bn (US$1.85bn).
- The stock will not get Fast Entry to either of the global indices. The earliest inclusion in a global index should take place in November.
- Central Depository Services (CDSL IN)‘s stock price has dropped following the announcement of NSDL‘s IPO price band and the muted results could lead to further downside in the stock.
ProSiebenSat.1: MFE Raises Offer, Reducing Arbitrage Upside and Shifting Risk Profile
- MFE raised its offer to €7.88 implied, tightening the spread to just +1.15%; new long entries now face skewed downside risk without a second bump or strategic surprise.
- Legacy holders from €5.80–7.00 have captured meaningful gains; with the August 13 deadline approaching, using MFE-A hedges or call structures preserves upside while limiting exposure.
- MFE-A borrow remains accessible (~0.75%), making short hedges viable; paired with call options, this offers capital-efficient exposure to upside while mitigating equity volatility in a tight spread setup.
Ainsworth Game Technology (AGI AU): 29th August Vote On Novomatic’s “Low-Balled Offer”
- Back on the 28th April 2025, Ainsworth Game Technology (AGI AU), an Aussie gaming supplier, entered into a Scheme with Austria’s Novomatic, Ainsworth’s largest shareholder (52.9%).
- Novomatic offered A$1.00/share (best & final) – including a permitted dividend – a 35% premium to last close; yet 64% below what Novomatic paid for its controlling stake in 2016.
- The Scheme Doc is now out, with a shareholder vote on the 29th August. The IE says fair & reasonable. They are probably tight.
Assura: Bid Floor in Place, Upside Optionality Hinges on Revised PHP Terms or Auction Outcome
- KKR’s firm cash bid of 50.24p offers a modest +0.56% premium to Assura’s current price, anchoring downside risk in this live UK REIT takeover contest.
- PHP’s offer implies upside only if its share price rebounds; spread turns positive beyond 98p, with optionality up to +7.4% if PHP retests its six-month high.
- Limited arbitrage remains, but a final round auction or revised bid could unlock renewed spread capture; monitor deal calendar ahead of the 12 August offer deadline.
SSI Newsletter: PMVP Trial Catalyst, YORKU Trading Split, CPPTL Extension, GLXZ Merger, LUNA Updates
- PMV Pharmaceuticals is in a Phase 2 trial for cancer therapy, with interim results expected mid-2025, and potential value realization through strategic review due to a large net cash position.
- Yorkville Acquisition has commenced separate trading of its Class A ordinary shares and warrants, with a $10/share trust value.
- Copper Property CTL Trust extended its wind-down deadline to January 2026, with amendments allowing confidential shareholder consultations during the sale process.
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