In today’s briefing:
- Curator’s Cut: BABA Hedges, Substantive Spin-Offs & Japanese Activist Situations
- Merger Arb Mondays (29 Sep) – Soft99, Ashimori, Mandom, Paramount, OneConnect, Dongfeng, Spindex
- Spindex Industries (SPE SP): PrimeMovers Equity-Sponsored MBO at S$1.43
- HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 26 Sep 2025); BIG Single Stock Trading Again, Big Net, But Hs Fall
- A/H Premium Tracker (To 26 Sep 2025): AH Premia Rise Across the Board
- Spindex Industries (SPE SP)’s Clean MBO
- ReNew Energy Global (RNW US): Decision Time On NBIO
- RBA Rate Watch: Navigating ASX 200, Banks, and Resources
Curator’s Cut: BABA Hedges, Substantive Spin-Offs & Japanese Activist Situations
- Welcome to Curator’s Cut, a fortnightly roundup of standout themes from the 1,000+ Insights published over the past two weeks on Smartkarma
- In this cut, we review strategies to hedge Alibaba (9988 HK) exposure, examine signficant Asian spin-offs, and explore engaging activist situations in Japan
- Want to dig deeper? Comment or message with the themes you’d like to see highlighted next
Merger Arb Mondays (29 Sep) – Soft99, Ashimori, Mandom, Paramount, OneConnect, Dongfeng, Spindex
- I summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations we cover across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.
- Highest spreads: Mayne Pharma (MYX AU), Smart Share Global (EM US), ENN Energy (2688 HK), Dongfeng Motor (489 HK), Soft99 Corp (4464 JP), Joy City Property (207 HK).
- Lowest spreads: Bright Smart Securities (1428 HK), Pacific Industrial (7250 JP), Humm Group (HUM AU), Mandom Corp (4917 JP), Paramount Bed Holdings Co Lt (7817 JP).
Spindex Industries (SPE SP): PrimeMovers Equity-Sponsored MBO at S$1.43
- Spindex Industries (SPE SP) disclosed a privatisation through a scheme of arrangement from the Chairman and PrimeMovers Equity at S$1.43 per share. Including the FY2025 dividend, the total offer is S$1.45.
- While the offer is attractive compared to historical trading ranges, it is light in comparison to peer and precedent transaction multiples. It is also below book value.
- The offer has not been declared final. However, the lack of a disinterested shareholder holding a blocking stake and moderate retail ownership lowers the vote risk.
HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 26 Sep 2025); BIG Single Stock Trading Again, Big Net, But Hs Fall
- Gross SOUTHBOUND volumes just over US$19bn a day this past 5-day week. Big. Quite decent net buying flows too though the market fell.
- The recommended name last week was short Alibaba (9988 HK) was +4.65% on the week despite HK being down across the board.
- The data tables below update on a daily basis in the Tools section of Smartkarma. The SOUTHBOUND Flow Monitor and AH Pairs Monitor are both there for all SK readers.
A/H Premium Tracker (To 26 Sep 2025): AH Premia Rise Across the Board
- “Beautiful Skew” showed up slightly as Hs underperformed their As across the board (every sector, every premium tranche), but more on narrow AH Premia.
- Last week’s short reco on China Merchants Bank H (3968 HK) saw the H-share underperform its A by 2.54% and it outright fell 3.14%. OK week.
- The data tables below update on a daily basis in the Tools section of Smartkarma. The SOUTHBOUND Flow Monitor and AH Pairs Monitor are both there – free – for all SK readers.
Spindex Industries (SPE SP)’s Clean MBO
- Late Friday (26th September), precision parts manufacturer Spindex Industries (SPE SP) announced an Offer, by way of a Scheme, from the Tan Family, Spindex’s controlling shareholder (74.95%).
- The Tan’s are offering S$1.43/share, an okay 27.7% premium to undisturbed, and a decade-high price. The Offer is backed by PE outfit PrimeMovers Equity.
- Clean deal. No competing Offer will emerge. I estimate payment mid-Jan 2026.
ReNew Energy Global (RNW US): Decision Time On NBIO
- Back on the 10th December 2024, ReNew Energy Global (RNW US), an Indian renewable energy play, announced a non-binding Offer of US$7.07/share, by way of a Scheme.
- The bidding consortium, comprising (mainly) pre-IPO investors CPP, ADIA, Abu Dhabi Future Energy, and founder Sumant Sinha, collectively holding 64%. Non-binding terms were bumped to US$8/share on the 3rd July.
- ReNew’s Special Committee will provide “public comment regarding these matters at such time as there is a material development in the process, and by no later than 30 September 2025“.
RBA Rate Watch: Navigating ASX 200, Banks, and Resources
- The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) meets on Tuesday, 30 September 2025, with a rate decision due at 14:30h AEST.
- Highlights: Consensus is firmly for a hold (96% probability), but surprise cuts have historically doubled the market’s typical daily move. Sector impacts—banks vs. resources—closely examined.
- Why Read: An actionable roadmap to sector sensitivities, highlighting bank and resource ETFs as tactical vehicles if the RBA deviates from expectations.
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