In today’s briefing:
- Global Foods Creators (7559) – Another Stupidly Cheap MBO With Rigged DCF
- Takeda Pharma (4502) – Strong Results
- SOL Shipbuilding Top 3 ETF Throws off Some Serious Flow Trading Plays with Plenty of Juice
- Quiddity JPX-Nikkei 400 Rebal 2025: End-Jan 2025 Ranks
- Dropsuite (DSE AU): NinjaOne’s A$5.90/Share Scheme
- Whirlpool Corporation’s Big Exit: What’s Behind the Stake Reduction?
- BMPS’s Hostile Takeover Bid for Mediobanca: Strategic and Financial Implications
- EQD | Nifty 50 Option Strategy – Implied Volatility Is Not as Rich as It Seems
- Abrdn European Logistics Income Trust Liquidation: 23% Upside Potential Amid Asset Sales
Global Foods Creators (7559) – Another Stupidly Cheap MBO With Rigged DCF
- Today after the close, Global Food Creators (7559 JP) announced that the CEO would sell his 1.23% of the company into an MBO by a company he set up.
- The family company which owns 27%, and he would fund the takeover of the other 73% with 1% equity taken from his share sale, and 99% bank loans.
- The TOB is at 0.65x book for a cash-rich company. Liquidate the cash and the rest is being taken over at 0.33x book. Aaaaargh.
Takeda Pharma (4502) – Strong Results
- Today Takeda Pharmaceutical (4502 JP) announced earnings which will mean last year was the trough, not this year. The pipeline looks OK too.
- The company also announced a ¥100bn buyback and a change of CEO. The buyback has a big number, but it isn’t particularly exciting.
- All in all, there’s positive news here, but it is all much of a muchness, but as it is a nine-figure buyback in 3mos, we take a look.
SOL Shipbuilding Top 3 ETF Throws off Some Serious Flow Trading Plays with Plenty of Juice
- This 20% reversion and 30% cap setup creates solid flow trades. With just 13 holdings, SOL ETF’s weight swings hard—Hanwha Ocean’s already pushing 27% post-rebal.
- Constituent changes drive the biggest dislocations—still the main setup. “The other 10” names are FICS-screened by market cap (May/Nov cut), making rotations fairly predictable.
- With AUM only ramping recently, this ETF is still in price discovery mode. Pre-positioning ahead of flows has juice, making it a prime target for aggressive flow trading.
Quiddity JPX-Nikkei 400 Rebal 2025: End-Jan 2025 Ranks
- JPX-Nikkei 400 is composed of common stocks listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange. It is a free-float-adjusted capped index composed of 400 constituents.
- The annual index review takes place in August every year. We look at the latest rankings of potential ADDs/DELs every month.
- Below is a look at the rankings of potential ADDs/DELs for the JPX-Nikkei 400 August 2025 rebalance based on trading data as of end-January 2025.
Dropsuite (DSE AU): NinjaOne’s A$5.90/Share Scheme
- Dropsuite (DSE AU), a backup, recovery and protection software company, has entered into a Scheme Implementation Deed with Texas-based IT automation outfit NinjaOne.
- NinjaOne is offering A$5.90/share, a 34.1% premium to last close. Apart from Dropsuite’s shareholder approval, the Offer requires FIRB signing off. The Offer has the unanimous backing of both boards.
- The Offer also has the backing of Dropsuite’s largest shareholder, Topline Capital (31%). Board & management hold a further 9%. Implementation is expected late May 2025. This is done.
Whirlpool Corporation’s Big Exit: What’s Behind the Stake Reduction?
- Whirlpool Corp (WHR US) plans to sell a 31% stake in Whirlpool of India (WHIRL IN) reducing ownership to 20% by 2025, triggering a 20% decline due to valuation concerns.
- The implied sale valuation is lower than market expectations, raising concerns about growth, profitability, and stock overvaluation, while the parent company capitalizes on an asset arbitrage opportunity.
- Short-Term stock pressure due to stake sale overhang, declining profitability, and reduced parent control, but potential long-term re-rating if operational performance improves.
BMPS’s Hostile Takeover Bid for Mediobanca: Strategic and Financial Implications
- Hostile Takeover Attempt: BMPS launched a €13.3B all-share bid for Mediobanca, offering a 5% premium, but Mediobanca rejected it, citing governance conflicts and strategic misalignment.
- Shareholder and Dilution Risks: BMPS shareholders face 39.3% dilution, while Delfin and Caltagirone’s post-merger 24% stake raises governance concerns, potentially sidelining smaller investors.
- The deal faces integration risks, and Mediobanca’s shareholder resistance, with BMPS’s falling stock price erasing the initial premium, making success increasingly uncertain.
EQD | Nifty 50 Option Strategy – Implied Volatility Is Not as Rich as It Seems
- NIFTY Index implied volatility could be seen as rich when compared to its own history and in comparison to realized volatility.
- Putting implied volatility into context with NIFTY Index market levels and trends will lead to a different conclusion. Implied volatility is not nearly as rich as conventional measures suggest.
- This Insight provides a quantitative indication at which price implied volatility can be assessed as rich, given current relative index levels.
Abrdn European Logistics Income Trust Liquidation: 23% Upside Potential Amid Asset Sales
- ASLI is undergoing a managed wind-down with a 23% upside to NAV estimates, selling properties above NAV.
- Recent sales include three assets for €45m, with further large assets in due diligence, supporting NAV estimates.
- Risks include potential higher disposal costs and management incentives, but a margin of safety exists with current pricing.
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