In today’s briefing:
- HK CEO & Director Dealings (28th Feb 2025): Mobvista, Xtep, Onewo, Bonny International
- Tencent (700 HK): Expiry-Day Recap; Intra-Day Swing of 4.1%.
- Street Intel on NPS’s Buy Flow—the Key Swing Factor as Korea’s Short-Selling Comeback
- BBVA/Sabadell: Updated Terms
- Post Demerger Outlook: OneSource Specialty Pharma- India’s First Multi-Modality CDMO
- Ercros Takeover Battle: Regulatory Hurdles and Market Skepticism
HK CEO & Director Dealings (28th Feb 2025): Mobvista, Xtep, Onewo, Bonny International
- The data in this insight is collated from the “shareholding disclosure” link on the HKEx website.
- Often there is a corresponding HKEx announcement on the increase – or decrease – in the shareholding by directors. Or pledging. However, such disclosures are by no means an absolute.
- The key stocks mentioned in this regular series include: Mobvista (1860 HK), Xtep International (1368 HK), Onewo (2602 HK), and Bonny International Holding (1906 HK).
Tencent (700 HK): Expiry-Day Recap; Intra-Day Swing of 4.1%.
- During yesterday’s Option expiration day, Tencent (700 HK) experienced an intra-day swing of 4.1%.
- Trading in the afternoon oscillated around the prominent 500 strike level. Around 66% of calls and 2% of puts expired in the money.
- Volume was lower than in the preceding days; a total of 38 million shares were traded, with the morning session accounting for 53% of the volume.
Street Intel on NPS’s Buy Flow—the Key Swing Factor as Korea’s Short-Selling Comeback
- NPS’s aggressive net buying over the past four months? Just a 3% buffer rebalance—not some structural bullish call on K-stocks.
- Street intel points to NPS capping buys in the low-14% range, 1%p below target, only defending against dips. With short selling back on from March 31, further buying looks unlikely.
- With NPS stepping back and retail still weak, no real size remains on the buy side. Short flow could hit harder than expected—time to price it in and adjust positioning.
BBVA/Sabadell: Updated Terms
- Revised Offer Terms: BBVA increased the cash payment to €0.13/Sabadell share (raising total cash outlay to €705 million), while adjusting the exchange ratio to 5.3456 Sabadell shares per BBVA share.
- The deal requires CNMC, CNMV, and government approvals, with market skepticism evident as Sabadell’s market price exceeds the offer value, signaling a low probability of success under current terms.
- Financial Impact on BBVA: The increased cash component raises the estimated CET1 capital impact to 51bps, with potential further dilution if BBVA raises the cash payment to €0.20-€0.30 per share.
Post Demerger Outlook: OneSource Specialty Pharma- India’s First Multi-Modality CDMO
- Onesource Specialty Pharma (ONESOURC IN) has transitioned from a niche player to a multi-modality CDMO powerhouse through strategic restructuring, rapid revenue expansion, and aggressive capacity building.
- With a projected INR1,400 crore revenue in FY25 (INR173 crore in FY24) and shifting from MSA to CSA contracts, OS is stabilizing its revenue model, tapping into high-growth segments.
- By leveraging a first-mover advantage in GLP-1, regulatory strength, and a $100 million capex plan, OS is positioning itself to become a billion-dollar global CDMO leader within the next 3-4Yrs.
Ercros Takeover Battle: Regulatory Hurdles and Market Skepticism
- Regulatory Scrutiny: The CNMC has launched Phase II investigations into both Bondalti’s and Esseco’s takeover bids for Ercros due to competition concerns, potentially delaying or complicating the acquisition process.
- Market Sentiment: With Ercros trading at €2.81, well below Esseco’s €3.745 bid, the gross spread of 33.3% and 20.5% deal probability indicate skepticism about the takeover’s success.
- In 2024, Ercros reported €667.4 million in sales, €29.4 million EBITDA, and a €11.7 million net loss, reflecting economic headwinds that could influence shareholders’ decisions on the competing takeover offers.
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