In today’s briefing:
- [Japan M&A/Activism] – Activism Wins as MBO Bidder Pays 42.4% More for Pacific Industrial (7250 JP)
- IDT (167 HK): Expect Long-Dated MGO As Major Shareholder Placed In Receivership
- Pacific Industrial (7250 JP): The Wow Factor as MBO Bumped by 42% to JPY2,919
- Minmetals Land (230 HK): China Minmetals’ Scheme Offer at 2x the Last Close Price
- Minmetals Land (230 HK): An Offer Premium Of 179% To NAV? Yes Please
- First Pacific (142 HK): Maynilad’s IPO (Now With Prospectus Numbers)
- Prosus–JET Arbitrage: Offer Unconditional, Squeeze-Out and Delisting Confirmed
- Industrivärden Q3 2025: NAV Growth, Narrowing Discount, and Portfolio Rotation
[Japan M&A/Activism] – Activism Wins as MBO Bidder Pays 42.4% More for Pacific Industrial (7250 JP)
- When the Pacific Industrial (7250 JP) deal was announced in late July, I said it needed to be done 20-40% higher. I hadn’t expected someone to push so hard.
- But Effissimo pushed. They bought 12.5% of shares out, and 13+% of votes at an average price of ¥2,365/share – 15% through terms.
- Three months later after multiple extensions, Bidco bid up. +42.4%, to 1.002x March 2025 BVPS. A raging win for activists and minority investors. I’m genuinely surprised by the quantum.
IDT (167 HK): Expect Long-Dated MGO As Major Shareholder Placed In Receivership
- Consumer electronics play IDT International (167 HK) is currently suspended pursuant to the Takeovers Code. But don’t expect your usual Offer to unfold.
- On the 2nd October, IDT announced that Tiger Energy Technology, which holds 72.1% of share out, has been placed into receivership. Tiger Energy is 50% owned by Tiger Chen (ED).
- IDT was recently suspended for 581 days after failing to publish its annual results. Upon resumption of trading, predicated on a re-organisation, the major shareholder promptly exited. Without telling anyone.
Pacific Industrial (7250 JP): The Wow Factor as MBO Bumped by 42% to JPY2,919
- The MBO price for Pacific Industrial (7250 JP) has increased by 42.4% from JPY2,050 to JPY2,919 per share. The revised offer represents a P/B of 1.01x.
- While Effissimo has publicly built a 13.25% ownership stake, behind the scenes, Murakami agitated for a bump by suggesting that he would help fund the increase in the consideration.
- The Ogawas rebuffed Murakami’s funding but secured his verbal agreement to tender. While Effissimo’s intentions remain unknown, it is likely to support the revised offer.
Minmetals Land (230 HK): China Minmetals’ Scheme Offer at 2x the Last Close Price
- Minmetals Land (230 HK) has disclosed a Bermuda scheme offer from China Minmetals at HK$1.00 per share, a 104.1% premium to the last close price of HK$0.49.
- Key conditions include approval by at least 75% independent shareholders (<10% of independent shareholders’ rejection) and the headcount test. The offer is final.
- No disinterested shareholder holds a blocking stake. This is a done deal in large part due to the significant takeover premium.
Minmetals Land (230 HK): An Offer Premium Of 179% To NAV? Yes Please
- After suspending shares on the 30th September, SOE-Backed, Chinese property play Minmetals Land (230 HK), has now announced an Offer, by way of a Scheme buyback, from parent China Minmetals.
- The Offer Price of HK$1/share, declared final, is a punchy 185.71% premium to last close. And also a 179% premium over the 30th June 2025 NAV. Optically, looks solid also.
- Disinterested shareholders hold 38.12%. They should be happy with terms. This should wrap up (perhaps) late February 2026.
First Pacific (142 HK): Maynilad’s IPO (Now With Prospectus Numbers)
- In First Pacific (142 HK): Maynilad’s IPO Price Firmed, I discussed Maynilad’s upcoming IPO, a company controlled by MPIC, which in turn, is controlled by First Pacific Co (142 HK).
- Since that note, I have tracked down Maynilad’s elusive prospectus.
- This insight is largely a rehash of yesterday’s note, together with updated numbers applying prospectus figures. I thought this warranted a fresh insight as opposed to a boomerang.
Prosus–JET Arbitrage: Offer Unconditional, Squeeze-Out and Delisting Confirmed
- Prosus’s €4.1bn all-cash acquisition of Just Eat Takeaway.com is now unconditional, with 98.19% ownership secured. Shares will delist from Euronext Amsterdam on 17 November ahead of statutory squeeze-out.
- Early arbitrage entrants earned roughly 9.3% annualized return, late entrants about 3.6%. With settlement complete, the residual spread has closed, leaving no remaining event-driven opportunity.
- The transaction cements Prosus as Europe’s largest food delivery platform and the world’s fourth largest globally, following Meituan, DoorDash, and Uber, under CEO Fabricio Bloisi’s expansion strategy.
Industrivärden Q3 2025: NAV Growth, Narrowing Discount, and Portfolio Rotation
- NAV rose 8% YTD to SEK 179 bn; Industrivärden C trades at a tight 4.5% discount.
- Concentrated, high-quality portfolio: Sandvik + Volvo ≈ 60% NAV; ultra-low 0.07% costs. Solid balance sheet (A+/Stable, 3% leverage) but limited near-term upside after discount compression.
- Tactically, short-bias positioning (short holdco / long asset basket) is attractive near a 3–6% discount, while a renewed 8–10% gap would again justify a reversal into the classic long-holdco trade.
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