In today’s briefing:
- Key Schedule for Korea’s Dividend Policy Momentum: This Thursday – Short‑term Target Group Screened
- Index Consultation on DATCos Means MORE Selling Likely, and Another Index Questionable
- Saint-Care (2374 JP): An Attractive MBO
- Merger Arb Mondays (10 Nov) – Soft99, Digital Holding, Saint-Care, ANE, ENN Energy, Mayne, AUB
- Weekly Deals Digest (09 Nov) – Toyota Industries, Mandom, Pacific Industrial, Saint-Care, ANE, Mayne
- Japan 2025 H1 Bank Guidance/Results UPDATE – Strong Uplift Continues on Better Core Biz Income
- CVC Joins EQT In Pursuit Of AUB Group (AUB AU)
Key Schedule for Korea’s Dividend Policy Momentum: This Thursday – Short‑term Target Group Screened
- Dividend tax reform hits calendar: Assembly’s Strategy & Finance Committee starts hearings Nov 13; street buzzing as assembly headlines will push dividend theme.
- Ruling party resists 25% payout threshold; cutting that low kills dividend incentive, while keeping 40% pushes corporates in 20–40% band to hike payouts.
- From Thursday, dividend momentum likely drives locals into >4% yielders with >40% payout, so these names should be our near‑term targets.
Index Consultation on DATCos Means MORE Selling Likely, and Another Index Questionable
- In mid-September, global index provider M _ _ _ announced that they were conducting an index consultation on Digital Asset Treasury Cos. I wrote about it here.
- My recommended short at the time is down 30%, despite announcing a large buyback program. Others have lost significant premium vs underlying digital assets.
- The same index provider expanded their list of affected names on 29 Oct. And a DIFFERENT Index provider this week added DATCOs to a US Advisory Panel Meeting Agenda Wednesday.
Saint-Care (2374 JP): An Attractive MBO
- Saint-Care Holding (2374 JP) has recommended an MBO from the founding family at JPY1,220, a 48.8% premium to the last close price.
- The offer is attractive compared to historical trading ranges and is above the midpoint of the target IFA DCF valuation range.
- Due to the irrevocables, it is not onerous to meet the minimum acceptance condition. This is a done deal.
Merger Arb Mondays (10 Nov) – Soft99, Digital Holding, Saint-Care, ANE, ENN Energy, Mayne, AUB
- I summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations we cover across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.
- Highest spreads: Mayne Pharma (MYX AU), Saint-Care Holding (2374 JP), Smart Share Global (EM US), ENN Energy (2688 HK), Dongfeng Motor (489 HK), Digital Holdings Inc (2389 JP).
- Lowest spreads: Bright Smart Securities (1428 HK), Mandom Corp (4917 JP), Pacific Industrial (7250 JP), Toyota Industries (6201 JP), Seven West Media (SWM AU), Jinke Smart Services (9666 HK).
Weekly Deals Digest (09 Nov) – Toyota Industries, Mandom, Pacific Industrial, Saint-Care, ANE, Mayne
- A weekly summary of key developments across ECM and Event-Driven names tracked by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Korea, India and Chinese ADRs.
- ECM developments: CNGR Advanced Material (300919 CH) is seeking to raise US$507 million through a H Share listing.
- Event-Driven developments: Toyota Industries (6201 JP), Japan Infrastructure Fund Investment Corporation (9287 JP), Mandom Corp (4917 JP), Pacific Industrial (7250 JP), Saint-Care Holding (2374 JP), ANE Cayman Inc (9956 HK).
Japan 2025 H1 Bank Guidance/Results UPDATE – Strong Uplift Continues on Better Core Biz Income
- This four-day week saw 10 new guidance revisions (+61% on average), and 21 H1 earnings results (13 which hadn’t guided, averaging +41%, 8 which had, averaging 5.7% uplift vs guidance)
- It was a Good Week, though banks fell 0.4% as TOPIX fell 1% on the week.
- Once again, lower credit costs, higher net interest income, and some equity sales dominated. H2 implied guidance lower in many cases, some because of expected portfolio rebalancing (loss-taking).
CVC Joins EQT In Pursuit Of AUB Group (AUB AU)
- On the 28th October 2025, AUB Group Limited (AUB AU), an insurance “matchmaker”, announced a NBIO, via a Scheme, from EQT at A$45/share, a ~40% premium to undisturbed.
- The share price has consistently traded wide to terms, not just because of the transactions’ indicative nature; but EQT’s track record on progressing from indicative to firm is not optimum.
- This morning AUB announced CVC was teaming up with EQT, at $45/share; and concurrently requested additional due diligence. This has been granted by AUB.
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