In today’s briefing:
- Makino Milling Machine (6135 JP): Progress Update While Mixed, Should Calm Nerves
- Merger Arb Mondays (15 Dec) – Toyota Ind, Makino, Raksul, Pacific Ind, Jinke, Meilan Airport, NSR
- [Japan M&A?] Nikkei Reports Nippon Life to Buy Medical Data Vision (3902) For ~¥60bn
- Medical Data Vision (3902 JP): Nippon Life’s Rumoured Tender Offer at 3x the Last Close
- A/H Premium Tracker (Wk to 12 Dec 2025): Hs Underperform, Beautiful Skew Behaves, Utilities Bought
- Hang Seng (11 HK): 8th Jan Vote On HSBC’s Offer. Clean Deal.
- HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (Wk To 12 Dec 2025) – Lower Activity, Net Sell This Week,
Makino Milling Machine (6135 JP): Progress Update While Mixed, Should Calm Nerves
- On Friday, after market close, Makino Milling Machine Co (6135 JP) finally issued a progress update on the MBK preconditional tender offer. The update, while mixed, should calm nerves.
- The positive read-across is a pathway to regulatory approvals, the Homeplus saga has not derailed the offer, and the likely breach of the long-stop date is not a termination event.
- The negative read-across is the lack of a revised tender start timeline, an unexplained delay in securing most regulatory approvals and ongoing uncertainty on the long-stop date.
Merger Arb Mondays (15 Dec) – Toyota Ind, Makino, Raksul, Pacific Ind, Jinke, Meilan Airport, NSR
- I summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations we cover across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.
- Highest spreads: Smart Share Global (EM US), Dongfeng Motor (489 HK), Raksul Inc (4384 JP), Jinke Smart Services (9666 HK), Qube Holdings (QUB AU), ENN Energy (2688 HK).
- Lowest spreads: Bright Smart Securities (1428 HK), Pacific Industrial (7250 JP), Toyota Industries (6201 JP), Hainan Meilan International Airport (357 HK), Ainsworth Game Technology (AGI AU).
[Japan M&A?] Nikkei Reports Nippon Life to Buy Medical Data Vision (3902) For ~¥60bn
- Medical Data Vision (3902 JP) was IPOed in 2014. MitCorp sold. Others sold. Fujifilm and Medipal stayed in. The stock ran up. SBI bought from Fujifilm in Nov2020 at ¥2355.
- The stock fell, SBI bought more in 2021-2022. Then it fell more in 2023 and SBI bought more, then fell more in 2024 and SBI bought more.
- The Nikkei reports today that Nippon Life will announce a TOB on 15 December with a max price of ¥60bn (242% premium), which coincidentally would bring SBI close to breakeven.
Medical Data Vision (3902 JP): Nippon Life’s Rumoured Tender Offer at 3x the Last Close
- The Nikkei reports that Nippon Life Insurance will launch a tender offer for Medical Data Vision (3902 JP) at a valuation up to JPY60 billion.
- If the valuation refers to market cap, the offer is JPY1,500, a 225% premium to the last close of JPY462. If it relates to EV, the offer price is JPY1,550.
- Despite the staggering premium, it does not represent an all-time high (share price traded higher in November 2021). Nevertheless, a binding proposal would be a done deal.
A/H Premium Tracker (Wk to 12 Dec 2025): Hs Underperform, Beautiful Skew Behaves, Utilities Bought
- Hs within the liquid AH pair universe UNDER-performed As on average by 0.78% on A-share index rebal week. Beautiful Skew behaved better. H Utilities were bought.
- Quiddity H/A Portfolio performance slightly positive (+23bp). Stay the Beautiful Skew course.
- The data tables below update on a daily basis in the Tools section of Smartkarma. The Southbound Flow Monitor and AH Pairs Monitor are both there – free for all SK readers.
Hang Seng (11 HK): 8th Jan Vote On HSBC’s Offer. Clean Deal.
- Back on the 9th October, Hang Seng Bank (11 HK) announced an Offer from controlling parent, HSBC Holdings (5 HK), by way of a Scheme.
- HSBC offered HK$155/share, a 30.3% premium to last close. The price was final. A third interim dividend was bolted on. Optically – and fundamentally – the price was bang on.
- The Scheme Doc is now out, with the Court Meeting on the 8th January 2026. Payment around 4th Feb. The IFA, in a bare-bones report, concluded “fair & reasonable”.
HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (Wk To 12 Dec 2025) – Lower Activity, Net Sell This Week,
- HK$77bn/Day of gross SOUTHBOUND activity last week vs HK$88bn the week before, HK$100+bn the week before. Gross flows are winding down.
- Watch for news on the Dual Counter (RMB) Trading eligibility for SOUTHBOUND near-term. That could re-up the pace. The SFC expected it “soon” in July. Later, by year-end.
- The data tables below update on a daily basis in the Tools section of Smartkarma. The Southbound Flow Monitor and AH Pairs Monitor are both there – free – for all SK readers.
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