In today’s briefing:
- Mayne Pharma (MYX AU): FY25 Results Aid Both Sides
- HKBN (1310 HK): On the Cusp of Being Declared Unconditional
- Clearing up the FSS’s Sudden Call on Samsung Life’s Samsung Elec Stake Accounting Shift
- Current Merger Arbitrage Opportunities and Strategic Reviews in Global Markets: Key Active Cases
- A/H Premium Tracker (To 29 Aug 2025): AH Premia Expand Again, Beautiful Skew Takes a Breather
- Lynas (LYC AU) Targets Vertical Expansion
- Huaxin Cement (6655 HK): Floats Non-Chinese Ops Spin-Off
- Increasing Probability of Hanwha Group Selling Its 8% Stake in Korea Zinc
- Merger Arbitrage Opportunities and Strategic Updates: AHX, PLYM, LWAY, YORKU, NZM, PAC and More
- Apiam Animal Health Receives A$0.88/Share Takeover Offer from Adamantem Capital
Mayne Pharma (MYX AU): FY25 Results Aid Both Sides
- On 29 August, Mayne Pharma (MYX AU) reported its FY25 results with underlying EBITDA of A$47 million, which is at the lower end of its guidance range.
- At first glance, FY25 results are positive for Mayne as they suggest that the weak 3Q was an aberration and its performance is on an upward trajectory.
- However, my analysis suggests that the results provide Cosette with several angles to pursue to bolster its case of a MAC breach. This remains a high-risk/high-reward set-up.
HKBN (1310 HK): On the Cusp of Being Declared Unconditional
- HKBN Ltd (1310 HK)’s offer from China Mobile (941 HK) is HK$5.075 with a 50% minimum acceptance condition. The first closing date is September 3.
- Based on CCASS data, including acceptances, China Mobile’s shareholding was 48.93% of outstanding shares as of September 1.
- Therefore, the offer should be declared unconditional by the first closing date. At the last close and for a September 12 payment, the gross/annualised spread is 0.5%/15.7%.
Clearing up the FSS’s Sudden Call on Samsung Life’s Samsung Elec Stake Accounting Shift
- Today’s FSS IFRS17 ruling is an accounting fix (equity vs. liability), not the Samsung Life Law, which is a regulatory cap on affiliate stakes based on market value.
- The FSS ruling signals Samsung Life doesn’t need to treat its Samsung Electronics stake as a forced-sale liability, lowering near-term sale risk.
- This eases the overhang, delays potential stake moves, and reinforces the relative underperformance setup on Samsung C&T highlighted in earlier posts.
Current Merger Arbitrage Opportunities and Strategic Reviews in Global Markets: Key Active Cases
- Apiam Animal Health received a takeover offer at A$0.88/share with an 11% spread, supported by founder Dr. Chris Richards.
- Plymouth Industrial REIT has a $24.10/share bid from Sixth Street Capital, with a 14-15% spread and board review ongoing.
- DallasNews has two takeover offers: $15/share from Hearst and $18.5/share from Alden, requiring two-thirds shareholder approval.
A/H Premium Tracker (To 29 Aug 2025): AH Premia Expand Again, Beautiful Skew Takes a Breather
- HUGE, rampaging, “Beautiful Skew”… is flat. Big swings in H/A ratios continue, this time on average with 2.1% H underperformance vs As which is -4.4% on average over two weeks.
- Last week’s short reco on Fuyao Glass Industry Group (3606 HK) was up 2.3% on the week in Hs but Hs underperformed the As by 1.86%.
- AH premia are in a widening phase. This may continue. New reco this week.
Lynas (LYC AU) Targets Vertical Expansion
- Last week, rare-earth play Lynas Corp Ltd (LYC AU) squared away a fully underwritten A$750mn placement (56.6mn shares, 6.1% of shares outstanding) at A$13.25/share, a 10% discount to last close.
- Gina Rinehart, Lynas’ second largest shareholders with ~8.2%, took up her compliment.
- Placement proceeds will be applied to streamlining ops, expanding its stockpiles/capacity, and investing downstream into magnet makers.
Huaxin Cement (6655 HK): Floats Non-Chinese Ops Spin-Off
- Two days after announcing its 2025 interims, Holcim (HOLN SW)-backed Huaxin Cement (6655 HK) proposed spinning off its overseas cement assets.
- The overseas ops, predominantly located in Africa, significantly outperformed the PRC ops in FY24, a trend that continued into 2025.
- No preferred bourse was stipulated, although the HKEx appears the logical choice. Pegged to historical trading metrics, Huaxin appears fully valued here.
Increasing Probability of Hanwha Group Selling Its 8% Stake in Korea Zinc
- There has been an increasing probability of the Hanwha Group selling its stake in Korea Zinc (010130 KS) mainly due to increasing burden of its petrochemical affiliates.
- For now, the Hanwha Group has denied all news regarding its potential sale of stake in Korea Zinc.
- In our view, the timing of this potential sale in Korea Zinc by Hanwha Group is less likely in 2025 but could occur in 2026/2027.
Merger Arbitrage Opportunities and Strategic Updates: AHX, PLYM, LWAY, YORKU, NZM, PAC and More
- Apiam Animal Health received a takeover offer from Adamantem Capital at A$0.88/share, with a current spread of 11%.
- YORK announced a merger with CRO token issuance, with each YORK share representing approximately 47 CRO tokens.
- Pacific Current Group’s FY25 results show a 28% discount to NAV, with potential capital allocation concerns.
Apiam Animal Health Receives A$0.88/Share Takeover Offer from Adamantem Capital
- Apiam Animal Health received a takeover offer from Adamantem Capital at A$0.88/share, representing a 60% premium.
- Adamantem has 30 days of exclusivity for due diligence, with support from AHX’s largest shareholder and founder.
- AHX’s enterprise value is A$220m, aligning with Adamantem’s typical transaction size and strategic acquisition interests.
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