In today’s briefing:
- Mayne Pharma (MYX AU): Twists and Turns as Cosette Chases a Get-Out-Of-Jail-Free Card
- Spartan Resources (SPR AU): Scheme Vote on 11 July
- Spartan Resources (SPR AU): 11th July Vote On Ramelius’ Offer
- Underwritten and Unlisted: GCO’s Delisting Looks Inevitable
- Cantor Equity Partners SPACs: Crypto-Linked Opportunities with Political Ties
- Mao Geping IPO Lockup – Stock Is up 4x, US$400m Cornerstone Lockup Release
- Sidara/Wood: Energy Engineering in Limbo, Value Beckons Amid Governance Fog
Mayne Pharma (MYX AU): Twists and Turns as Cosette Chases a Get-Out-Of-Jail-Free Card
- Mayne Pharma (MYX AU) disclosed that Cosette served a scheme termination notice. Mayne maintains that a material adverse clause was not breached and considers the termination notice invalid.
- The Cosette MAC breach claims likely hinge on establishing that forecasts provided during due diligence are materially lower than the unaudited management accounts. Precedents do not favour Mayne.
- While the last close price (A$4.48) is below the undisturbed price (HK$5.41), there remains downside. My estimated deal break valuation range is A$3.26-A$4.00.
Spartan Resources (SPR AU): Scheme Vote on 11 July
- The Spartan Resources (SPR AU) IE considers Ramelius Resources (RMS AU)’s offer (A$0.25 cash per share + 0.6957 RMS shares per SPR share) fair and reasonable.
- The offer is conditional on SPR shareholder approval. The vote remains low-risk and is aided by irrevocables (16.87% of outstanding shares).
- This is a done deal. At the last close and for a 31 July payment, the gross/annualised spread is 0.8%/5.0%.
Spartan Resources (SPR AU): 11th July Vote On Ramelius’ Offer
- On the 17th March, Spartan (SPR AU) agreed to merge with Ramelius (RMS AU). The cash/scrip merger combined operations around the Mount Magnet and Dalgaranga region in Western Australia.
- The implied price of A$1.78/share was a 27.5% premium to 30-day VWAP. The deal arrived after Spartan was outbid for Karora (KRR CN), and Spartan rebuffed Westgold (WGX AU)‘s approach.
- The Scheme Booklet is now out, with a Scheme Meeting on the 11th July, and expected implementation on or before the 31st July. The IE (BDO) says “fair & reasonable“.
Underwritten and Unlisted: GCO’s Delisting Looks Inevitable
- Inocsa seeks 75%+ control of GCO via a near-fair €49.45/share offer, aiming for strategic delisting. Minority holders risk illiquidity if they do not tender.
- GCO’s fundamentals remain strong: 9.2x NTM P/E, 0.9x P/TBV, 242% solvency, and ample excess capital suggest fair value is higher than the offer.
- While upside is capped, low risk and firm financing support offer risk-arb desks an annualized ~4% return before a likely late-August settlement.
Cantor Equity Partners SPACs: Crypto-Linked Opportunities with Political Ties
- CEPO and CEPT SPACs, run by Howard Lutnick, trade above trust value with potential multibagger upside in crypto-related deals.
- Cantor Fitzgerald, led by Lutnick’s son, has deepened its crypto involvement, including a 5% stake in Tether.
- Cantor’s SPACs feature no warrants, a sponsor note boosting trust value, and no specified target sectors.
Mao Geping IPO Lockup – Stock Is up 4x, US$400m Cornerstone Lockup Release
- Mao Geping Cosmetics raised around US$345m in its Hong Kong IPO. The lockup on its cornerstone investors is set to expire soon.
- Mao Geping Cosmetics (MGC) operates in the premium beauty segment. Operating via its two brands, MAOGEPING and Love Keeps, MGC offers a wide range of color cosmetics and skincare products.
- In this note, we will talk about the lockup dynamics and possible placement.
Sidara/Wood: Energy Engineering in Limbo, Value Beckons Amid Governance Fog
- Sidara’s persistence through multiple PUSU extensions and deep due diligence implies strong strategic interest despite Wood’s governance turbulence and suspended trading.
- Wood’s record $2B+ contract wins in Asia Pacific show the business remains commercially viable and strategically relevant in the energy infrastructure value chain.
- Free cash flow expected to turn meaningfully positive in 2026, supporting a standalone recovery case if no deal emerges—valuation suggests >2x upside potential.
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