In today’s briefing:
- Sanyo Special Steel (5481 JP): Nippon Steel (5401 JP)’s Light Tender Offer Begs for Activism
- (Mostly) Asia M&A, Jan 2025: Sun Art, Sanyo Special Steel, Jamco, Ascot, Dropsuite, Smart Share
- Giga Prize (3830 JP): FreeBit (3843 JP)’s Tender Offer Is a Done Deal
- Last Week in Event SPACE: Fast Retailing, Sigma, Takeda Pharmaceutical, WH Group
- Quiddity Leaderboard ASX Mar 25: LONGs up ~10% Vs SHORTs in a Month; More to Come
- (Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: Sigma Healthcare Dropsuite, Japfa, Dada Nexus, Malaysia Airports, Sanyo Steel
Sanyo Special Steel (5481 JP): Nippon Steel (5401 JP)’s Light Tender Offer Begs for Activism
- Sanyo Special Steel (5481 JP) has recommended Nippon Steel Corporation (5401 JP)’s tender offer at JPY2,750, a 37.4% premium to the last close.
- The offer is light, implying a P/B of 0.67x, below the midpoint of the IFA DCF range, below the Board’s requested price, and unattractive compared to peer multiples.
- The lack of an irrevocable and unattractive offer suggests that satisfying the minimum acceptance condition is likely challenging. This situation requires activism to force a bump.
(Mostly) Asia M&A, Jan 2025: Sun Art, Sanyo Special Steel, Jamco, Ascot, Dropsuite, Smart Share
- For the month of January 2025, 14 new transactions (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall announced deal size of ~US$6bn.
- The average premium for the new transactions announced (or first discussed) in January was ~57%, excluding Sun Art Retail (6808 HK)‘s massive takeunder.
- The average premiums for transactions in 2024 (129 transactions), (2023 (117), 2022 (106), 2021 (165), 2020 (158), and 2019 (145 ) were 43%, 39%, 41%, 33%, 31%, and 31% .
Giga Prize (3830 JP): FreeBit (3843 JP)’s Tender Offer Is a Done Deal
- Giga Prize (3830 JP) has recommended Freebit Co Ltd (3843 JP)’s tender offer at JPY2,500, a 48.5% premium to the last close.
- While the offer is below the midpoint of the target IFA’s DCF valuation range, it represents an all-time high and aligns with the Board’s requested price.
- The required minority acceptance rate is modest, and tendering by the third-largest shareholder is enough to close the deal.
Last Week in Event SPACE: Fast Retailing, Sigma, Takeda Pharmaceutical, WH Group
- It was confirmed on Friday afternoon Fast Retailing (9983 JP) was a single cap move, NOT a double-capping in a single Review. That limits the sell down.
- Chemist Warehouse’s reverse buyout of pharmacy wholesaler Sigma Healthcare (SIG AU) is now all-but complete.
- Takeda Pharmaceutical (4502 JP) announced decent results, decently upgraded guidance in both IFRS/GAAP terms and in Core/Adjusted terms (less impressive uplift in Adjusted/Analysed terms). They also announced a ¥100bn buyback.
Quiddity Leaderboard ASX Mar 25: LONGs up ~10% Vs SHORTs in a Month; More to Come
- In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes for ASX 300, 200, 100, 50, and 20 in the run-up to the March 2025 index rebal event.
- We expect two changes for ASX 50, one change for ASX 100, and seven changes for ASX 200. Separately we see 8 ADDs and 6 DELs for ASX 300.
- The Sigma Healthcare – Chemist Warehouse merger will be completed soon and there will be major inflows for Sigma Healthcare due to float percentage/share count upgrades.
(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: Sigma Healthcare Dropsuite, Japfa, Dada Nexus, Malaysia Airports, Sanyo Steel
- I tally 58 – mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac – transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma.
- Ten new deals discussed this week! Australia’s Dropsuite, Red Hawk,; Singapore’s Japfa, SLB; Japan’s Global Food, Ascot Corp, Chuoh Pack Industry, Giga Prize, Sanyo Special Steel; and Dada Nexus.
- Key updates/news took place on: Sigma Healthcare (SIG AU), Shandong Hi-Speed New Energy (1250 HK), China National Building Material (3323 HK), Malaysia Airports (MAHB MK), and Sun Art (6808 HK).
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