In today’s briefing:
- SBI Shinsei Bank (8303 JP) IPO: TPX Add in Jan; Global Index: One in May; One in June
- Merger Arb Mondays (17 Nov) – Mandom, Paramount Bed, Maruwn, Paris Miki, Mayne, AUB, Genting
- Weekly Deals Digest (16 Nov) – Pacific Ind, Forum, Fujitec, Itochu Shokuhin, Maruwn, Star Micronics
- Mandarin Oriental (MAND SP): Vote on Jardine Matheson’s Scheme Offer on 8 December
- Mandarin Oriental (MAND SP): 8th Dec Vote On Matheson’s Offer
- Buyback‑Burn Narrative in Play This Week as Korean Assembly Moves
- A/H Premium Tracker (Week to 14 Nov 2025): Beautiful Skew Still Behaving Badly, SOE Pair Hs Better
- Repsol: Evaluating Reverse Merger with APA — Fast-Track to U.S. Listing
- Weekly Update (MICC, MEDXF, STRZ)
SBI Shinsei Bank (8303 JP) IPO: TPX Add in Jan; Global Index: One in May; One in June
- SBI Shinsei Bank (8303 JP)‘s listing has been approved by the JPX and the stock is expected to start trading on the Prime Market from 17 December.
- At the indicated IPO price of ¥1,440/share, the IPO will raise up to ¥367.6bn (US$2.38bn) and value SBI Shinsei Bank (8303 JP) up to ¥1,290bn (US$8.34bn).
- The stock should be added to the TOPIX INDEX at the close on 29 January while inclusion in global indices should take place in May and June.
Merger Arb Mondays (17 Nov) – Mandom, Paramount Bed, Maruwn, Paris Miki, Mayne, AUB, Genting
- I summarise the latest spreads and newsflow of merger arb situations we cover across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Chinese ADRs.
- Highest spreads: Mayne Pharma (MYX AU), Smart Share Global (EM US), AUB Group Limited (AUB AU), Dongfeng Motor (489 HK), ENN Energy (2688 HK), Digital Holdings Inc (2389 JP).
- Lowest spreads: Bright Smart Securities (1428 HK), Mandom Corp (4917 JP), Seven West Media (SWM AU), Pacific Industrial (7250 JP), Toyota Industries (6201 JP), Jinke Smart Services (9666 HK).
Weekly Deals Digest (16 Nov) – Pacific Ind, Forum, Fujitec, Itochu Shokuhin, Maruwn, Star Micronics
- A weekly summary of key developments across ECM and Event-Driven names tracked by us across Hong Kong, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Japan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Korea, India and Chinese ADRs.
- ECM developments: CNGR Advanced Material (2579 HK) prices at the low end of the range, Klook (KLK US) seeks to raise US$400 million.
- Event-Driven developments: Pacific Industrial (7250 JP), Forum Engineering Inc (7088 JP), Fujitec Co Ltd (6406 JP), Itochu Shokuhin (2692 JP), Maruwn Corp (9067 JP), Star Micronics (7718 JP).
Mandarin Oriental (MAND SP): Vote on Jardine Matheson’s Scheme Offer on 8 December
- The vote on Mandarin Oriental International (MAND SP)’s privatisation offer from Jardine Matheson Holdings (JM SP) (US$2.75 cash + US$0.60 special dividend) is on 8 December.
- While the OCB sale completion (a scheme condition) carries timing risk, the Board continues to expect to complete the OCB sale by 31 December.
- The offer is conceivably light as Jardine’s dividends from the OCB sale comfortably cover the scheme cost. However, the offer remains reasonable on several fronts, and the vote is low-risk.
Mandarin Oriental (MAND SP): 8th Dec Vote On Matheson’s Offer
- Concurrent with the sale of 13 floors of OCB to Alibaba, Jardine Matheson (JM SP) is seeking to privatise Mandarin Oriental (MAND SP) at US$3.35/share by way of a Scheme.
- The Offer Price is a 52.3% premium to undisturbed, and a 53.7% premium to NAV. Clean deal. And MAND has consistently traded tight to terms.
- The Scheme Doc is now out for MAND. The Court Meeting is the 8th December. As with Jardine Strategic Holdings (JS SP)‘s 2021 takeover, there is no independent assessment report.
Buyback‑Burn Narrative in Play This Week as Korean Assembly Moves
- This week buyback‑burn names in focus; committees start debates, traders eye five bills’ overlap: retroactive cancellation of both new and legacy treasury stock.
- Grace period ranges from immediate to five years, but four of five bills cluster at one year; market treating one‑year retroactive cancellation as base case.
- Usual suspects in play: holdcos, financials, and >30% treasury stock names. Hard‑line Assembly stance means loopholes unlikely; grace‑period noise not driving near‑term price action.
A/H Premium Tracker (Week to 14 Nov 2025): Beautiful Skew Still Behaving Badly, SOE Pair Hs Better
- Hs outperformed As on average, slightly, within the AH pair universe. Last week’s reco gained vs the A on the week, but not Monday close to Friday. Stay long.
- There are nine new recos this week after a bunch of trades were closed last week.
- The data tables below update on a daily basis in the Tools section of Smartkarma. The Southbound Flow Monitor and AH Pairs Monitor are both there – free – for all SK readers.
Repsol: Evaluating Reverse Merger with APA — Fast-Track to U.S. Listing
- Repsol Is evaluating a spin-off and potential reverse merger with APA Corp (APA US) to list its upstream division in the U.S., accelerating its planned 2026 “liquidity event.”
- A U.S. listing could narrow Repsol’s valuation gap versus American E&Ps, surface hidden upstream value, and improve liquidity, while management insists on maintaining ≥51 % ownership of the new entity.
- The proposed structure offers upside asymmetry: even if talks stall, Repsol retains IPO or private-placement options; a completed deal could unlock 15–25 % SOTP upside through U.S. multiple convergence.
Weekly Update (MICC, MEDXF, STRZ)
The Wall Street Journal recently published a good article highlighting that streaming costs are soaring but consumers continue to be willing to pay.
- This is good news for Starz (STRZ), a pure play streaming service that is relatively cheap vs. its larger competitors.
- I continue to think Starz looks attractive. It is showing sequential revenue growth and OTT subscriber growth yet trades at 3.7x EBITDA and 2x FCF.
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