Daily Brief Event-Driven: Seven & I Holdings (3382 JP): A Potential Derailing of the MBO and more

• Bloomberg reports that the MBO is stalling due to disagreements within the consortium over who will control Seven & I Holdings (3382 JP) after it is privatised.
• The Nikkei reported that Itochu Corp (8001 JP) was set to withdraw from the MBO consortium. Along with CP ALL PCL (CPALL TB)’s non-participation, the MBO’s financing is in trouble. 
• An Alimentation Couche-Tard (ATD CN) bid remains in play but has issues. While progressing, the Board’s restructuring plan fails to prove a credible alternative. 

• Media reports indicate that Japan Post Holdings (6178 JP) could sell JPY 600bn (US$4.02bn) of Japan Post Bank (7182 JP) with the announcement coming as early as this week.
• The selldown is driven by Japan Post Holdings (6178 JP) needing to reduce its holding in Japan Post Bank (7182 JP) to 50% or lower by March 2026.
• Passive index trackers will buy around 11.4% of the offering at the time of settlement of the placement shares with the balance being bought in January 2026.

• Reportedly, China International Capital Corporation (3908 HK) and China Galaxy Securities (6881 HK), two of China’s leading state-backed brokerages, intend to merge via a share swap, forming China’s third-largest broker.
• This report/rumour arrives shortly after the successful merger of Guotai Junan Securities (2611 HK) (GJS) and Haitong Securities (6837 HK). 
• As with GJS/Haitong, expect a Merger by Absorption structure, and that Galaxy (or CICC?) issue new A and H shares to the target. I’d be picking up CICC shares here. 

• After the United States Trade Representative’s (USTR) office proposed a raft of fees and other shipping restrictions on Chinese vessels, non-SOE Yangzijiang Shipbuilding (YZJSGD SP) is down 16%.
• Port entrance fees include up to US$1mn/vessel owned by Chinese transport operators; and non-Chinese transport operators operating Chinese-built vessels would pay up to US$1.5mn per port entry
• Fees are currently preliminary, and may, as witnessed in recent Trump policies, be a bargaining chip rather than firm action. If enacted, these measures would curtail a promising Chinese export.

• Tonami Holdings (9070 JP) has recommended a Japan Post Holdings (6178 JP)-sponsored MBO at JPY10,200, a 73.8% premium to the last close.
• The offer is attractive compared to historical trading ranges and peer multiples. The offer represents an all-time high. 
• The offer is above the midpoint of the special committee IFA’s DCF valuation range but below that of the target IFA. However, the required minority acceptance rate is not onerous. 

• Equinox and Calibre announced a deal that was met with mixed reactions, with shareholders on both sides expressing dissatisfaction.
• The deal, which includes Equinox acquiring Calibre in an all-script deal, has led to a 7% drop in Calibre’s share price.
• The deal will result in a combined group with nine producing mines and a mine under construction, with a pro forma ownership of 65% Equinox and 35% Calibre.

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• Tencent (700 HK) stock options expiring on Thursday, February 27, show a concentration of approximately 40,000 open contracts at the 500 strike price, currently at the money.
• The open interest at the 500 strike may increase volatility and trading activity near expiry if the stock price hovers around 500, possibly leading to amplified intraday price swings.
• At the last monthly expiry in January the stock experienced intraday price swings of 2.5%.

• Daemyung Sono Group will acquire a controlling 46.26% stake in T’Way Holdings (004870 KS) (THI) held by Yearimdang Publishing (036000 KS). THI looks stretched.
• Preceding my comments on the T’way Group are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.
• These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation >20%.

• Guzman Y Gomez (GYG AU) raised around US$221m in its Australian IPO. Its IPO linked partial lockup expiry is due soon.
• GYG is a quick service restaurant business with more than 200 restaurants globally. It mainly focuses on fresh, made-to-order, Mexican-inspired food.
• In this note, we will talk about the lockup dynamics and possible placement.

• After online trading player SelfWealth (SWF AU) entered into a SID with Bell Financial (BFG AU) on the 25th November, Singaporean-based wealth manager Svava gate-crashed the party earlier this month. 
• Svava tabled a non-binding A$0.28/share Offer, in cash, by way of a Scheme, versus Bell’s A$0.25/share. Svava also built an effective blocking stake – 18.83% of shares out.
• After Bell said it won’t make a counterproposal yesterday, SelfWealth has now entered into Scheme with Svava. Expect implementation in May.