In today’s briefing:
- Soundwill Holdings (878 HK): Hard Lessons from Another HK Arbageddon
- Last Week in Event SPACE: Toyota Industries, CATL, Mitsubishi Logisnext, Mayne Pharma, Melco
- (Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: Xanadu Mines, Reject Shop, ESR Group, Shibaura Elect., Jamco, Tsuruha/Welcia
- Event Driven: Bajaj Auto Acquired Majority Control of Austrian KTM
Soundwill Holdings (878 HK): Hard Lessons from Another HK Arbageddon
- Soundwill Holdings (878 HK) shareholders have voted against the Foo family’s HK$8.50 per share offer. The minority participation rate was high, and the NO vote comfortably failed the value test.
- Unlike the Goldlion Holdings (533 HK) deal break, the price action over the last three days pointed to a deal break. Like previous deal breaks, this one offers hard lessons.
- Soundwill has the fourth-highest premium of the pre-deal break price to the undisturbed price compared to previous deal breaks. My estimated deal-break price is HK$5.63, 13.2% below the last close.
Last Week in Event SPACE: Toyota Industries, CATL, Mitsubishi Logisnext, Mayne Pharma, Melco
- Winner winner chicken dinner. A Nikke article suggests a bid higher than ¥6tn for Toyota Industries (6201 JP). In addition, people thinking about ¥18,400/share are going about this incorrectly.
- Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL) (3750 HK) pops on its IPO debut. The HKEx has issued a high concentration warning
- Mitsubishi Logisnext Co., Ltd. (7105 JP) is still ragingly cheap given the move to delist dual parent/sub listings and having a global footprint. Own it here and now.
(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: Xanadu Mines, Reject Shop, ESR Group, Shibaura Elect., Jamco, Tsuruha/Welcia
- I tally 46 – mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac – arb transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma.
- Just one new deal was discussed on Smartkarma this week: Bastion’s off-market Offer for Xanadu Mines (XAM AU).
- Key updates/news took place on: Reject Shop (TRS AU),ESR Group (1821 HK), Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP),Jamco Corp (7408 JP), and Tsuruha Holdings (3391 JP)/Welcia Holdings (3141 JP).
Event Driven: Bajaj Auto Acquired Majority Control of Austrian KTM
- Bajaj Auto will take majority control of KTM AG by buying out its Austrian partner in Pierer Bajaj AG and injecting €800 million to close KTM’s court-approved restructuring.
- The deal rescues a flagship European brand from insolvency, safeguards KTM’s supply chain, and vaults Bajaj into the global premium-sport segment as an OEM rather than a contract partner.
- Bajaj’s pivot from passive investor to turnaround owner adds earnings volatility near-term, but long-term it secures technology, brand equity, and a bigger share of high-margin 400-1,000 cc bikes.
Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma
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