In today’s briefing:
- StubWorld: Genting (GENT MK)’s U.S. Expansion Is A Gamble
- Korea’s Div Tax Story Suddenly Hits a Radical Inflection: Targeting Samsung Elec & Hyundai Motor
- Mayne Pharma (MYX AU): A Favourable Court Ruling
- Mandom (4917 JP): Murakami Continues to Add
- Mayne Pharma (MYX AU): Court Rules Cosette Cannot Walk
- HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN) Set to Report Q2 Results Ahead of Diwali Break
- Accor (AC FP) SLB: Trade the Verification Window
- Intermestic (Zoff) Doubles Stores to 600 with Megane Super Purchase
StubWorld: Genting (GENT MK)’s U.S. Expansion Is A Gamble
- Genting (GENT MK)‘s Offer for Genting Malaysia (GENM MK) is further evidence of the gaming group’s move for even greater U.S. exposure.
- Preceding my comments on GENT are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.
- These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation >20%.
Korea’s Div Tax Story Suddenly Hits a Radical Inflection: Targeting Samsung Elec & Hyundai Motor
- Kim Yong-beom proposed cutting eligibility to 25%+ payout firms and hinted the Presidential Office may slash the dividend tax ceiling to 25%, potentially the boldest move yet.
- Short-Term spotlight: large-cap 25–40% payout stocks, led by Samsung Elec and Hyundai Motor. Kim Yong-beom hinted the Presidential Office wants them included to drive dividend growth.
- Big-Cap 25–40% payout stocks, especially Samsung Elec and Hyundai Motor, could see heavy flows, with their preferred shares poised to outperform in the near term.
Mayne Pharma (MYX AU): A Favourable Court Ruling
- The NSW court has dismissed all Cosette claims relating to terminating its scheme implementation deed with Mayne Pharma (MYX AU).
- While Cosette can appeal, the chances that the judgment will be overturned are low due to the comprehensive judgment.
- The ruling will provide more certainty regarding the interpretation of MACs. The scheme is subject to FIRB approval, which should be forthcoming. At the last close, the spread was 30.7%.
Mandom (4917 JP): Murakami Continues to Add
- Murakami has amassed an 18.85% ownership ratio in Mandom Corp (4917 JP). The average buy-in price of JPY2,157.78 per share is 10.1% above the JPY1,960 CVC-sponsored MBO.
- Murakami’s ongoing stake building likely suggests that any potential discussions with CVC and the founding family to reinvest into BidCo have hit an impasse.
- CVC/Founding family can buy time by extending the 10 November close and disclosing additional irrevocables. Nevertheless, an offer bump remains more likely than not.
Mayne Pharma (MYX AU): Court Rules Cosette Cannot Walk
- In a watershed decision, the Supreme Court of NSW ruled Cosette cannot terminate its Scheme for Mayne Pharma (MYX AU).
- The hearings were the first time a material adverse change clause had been considered by an Australian court under such circumstances.
- The transaction still requires FIRB signing off. Concerns linger over whether Cosette intends to close a South Australian plant. Mayne has previously dispelled these concerns.
HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN) Set to Report Q2 Results Ahead of Diwali Break
- HDFC Bank (HDFCB IN) is scheduled to report its FY 2026 Q2 results on Saturday, 18 October 2025.
- Highlight: Consensus sees EPS near INR 11.3 and revenue around INR 437 Bn; options imply a ±2.3% move, above the historical ±1.7% average.
- Portfolio Impact: As the largest constituent of the Nifty 50 and BSE Sensex, HDFC’s earnings will be closely watched and could set the tone for the broader market.
Accor (AC FP) SLB: Trade the Verification Window
- Trade the 2028 SLB. Long value in Accor’s €700MM 2.375% SLB due in 2028. Monetise price moves around verification and vendor updates.
- High 2025 miss risk. 2024 levels imply steep absolute cuts required in one year. Intensity improved, absolutes did not. Scope 3 looks hardest to meet.
- Know the catalyst path. Observation occurs at YE 2025, with reporting and assurance arriving in 1Q 2026. Markets usually react when verification and data vendor fields update.
Intermestic (Zoff) Doubles Stores to 600 with Megane Super Purchase
- Intermestic, operator of the eyewear retailer, Zoff, has acquired Megane Super for ¥19 billion.
- WIth 620 stores, the combined new eyewear chain is larger than JINS, but the latter still has higher sales, at least for now.
- Zoff will use Megane Super’s expertise to take more share in the contact lens market but will also use its new scale to expand its own chain.
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