Daily Brief Event-Driven: StubWorld: The Murdoch Succession Into News Corp and more

• After a protracted succession stoush, Rupert Murdoch’s son Lachlan is set to take control of News Corp (NWS US) and Fox (FOXA US).
• Preceding my comments on News Corp and 62%-held REA Group Ltd (REA AU) are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.
• These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation >20%.

• Mandom Corp (4917 JP) has recommended a CVC-sponsored preconditional MBO at JPY1,960, a 32.1% premium to the last close price.
• The offer is below the midpoint of the IFA DCF valuation range and the special committee’s requested price. It is unattractive compared to precedent transactions and peer multiples. 
• The offer is unequivocally light. The setup has the potential for a bump, particularly if an activist emerges as a substantial shareholder.  

• On the 29th August, Mixi (2121 JP) cleared 50% of the voting power in PointsBet (PBH AU). It’s Offer was automatically extended, and will now close on the 12th September.
• Mixi has 51.59%. betr Entertainment (BBT AU) said it holds 20.45%, plus 6.5% in the IAF, the instructions for which can be withdrawn. betr said it won’t accept Mixi’s Offer.
• Mixi adds betr will have no PBH board representation “either now or in the future”; and betr will continue to be a clear competitor. Additionally, PBH questions betr’s buyback funding,

• Kim Jun-nyun (chairman of Sammok S-Form (018310 KS)) is conducting a tender offer of 1.4 million shares (9.52% stake) in Sammok S-Form through affiliates of the company.
• We believe that this tender offer signals one step closer to Chairman Kim Jun-Nyun and related parties eventually taking the company private.
• The company’s net cash is nearly 73% of its market cap. The company is trading at dirt cheap valuation (EV/EBITDA of 0.6x).

• KRW 5T fund—the public-participation slice of the KRW 35T joint vehicle—is the main conduit for flows into local equities.
• The KRW 150T policy fund launches December, but pre-emptive flows could hit early, led by the KRW 5T ETF-heavy, retail-accessible Public Participation Fund.
• The KRW 5T Public Participation Fund, ETF-heavy and thematic in AI, semis, Mobility, and Biotech, could drive concentrated, short-term rallies; position early ahead of year-end flows.

• AT&T paid $22.7 billion for Spectrum from SATS, a third of their portfolio
• Yummy Century Stocks discusses the significance of the Spectrum sale and the value trapped in SATS and DISH
• Yummy Century Stocks estimated the value of the Spectrum to be around $8 billion, slightly higher than what AT&T paid

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• All regulatory approvals secured; Deliveroo’s 180p/share takeover by DoorDash now awaits only procedural court steps. Sanction hearing is scheduled for 30 September; scheme effective date is 2 October.
• With a 1p spread and 179p entry, the deal offers ~8.9% annualised return by early October. Early entrants at 170.8p continue to realise strong IRRs above 12%.
• Risk is minimal with near-unanimous shareholder backing and no regulatory obstacles remaining. Administrative timing is the only variable; monitoring court scheduling and filing is key to arbitrage efficiency.

• On 3 July, Jilin Jiutai Rural Comm Bank (6122 HK) disclosed a voluntary conditional offer and delisting proposal by Jilin Province at HK$0.70. IFA opines it is fair and reasonable. 
• The IFA analysis is flawed, and the offer is unattractive. Nevertheless, the offer represents the best-case scenario for minorities, as the timeline for resuming trading remains uncertain.
• While the 24 October vote on the delisting proposal should pass, the satisfaction of the minimum acceptance condition (90% of independent H shares) poses a challenge.

• Forian received a $2.10/share go-private proposal from a consortium controlling 63% of the company; no premium offered.
• The company has a strong cash position, positive cash flow, and benefits from AI era tailwinds, suggesting limited downside.
• The two-step merger structure aims for 90% ownership, bypassing lengthy proxy processes and minimizing minority shareholder resistance.