In today’s briefing:
- Hankyu Hanshin REIT (8977) – Good Fundamental News, a Bigly Buyback, and Cascading Flows to Come
- Short Selling Resumes in Korea Just as the KOSPI 200 Braces for Pullback (Perfect Timing!)
- [KE Holdings (BEKE US, BUY, TP US$25) Earnings Review]: Housing Inventory Resolution Drives Recovery
- Korea’s FSC Just Dropped the Final Playbook on the Full Restart of Short Selling.
- Manappuram Finance: Bain Capital’s Entry Signals a New Chapter, But Challenges Remain
- MDAI: Burn Study Topline Data
Hankyu Hanshin REIT (8977) – Good Fundamental News, a Bigly Buyback, and Cascading Flows to Come
- 3D Investment Partners launched a Partial Tender Offer to buy a 10+% stake in Hankyu Hanshin REIT, Inc. (8977 JP). The REIT finally responded with a “Neutral” stance.
- But they also upgraded earnings forecasts, bought a building, and announced the Sponsor would buy units in the market over the next year. It’s big.
- And that creates flows, which then engender other reactive flows, and cascading flows, and because the sector isn’t rich, there may be a tailwind.
Short Selling Resumes in Korea Just as the KOSPI 200 Braces for Pullback (Perfect Timing!)
- Short selling in all stocks in South Korea will resume from 31 March 2025. The KOSPI 200 (KOSPI2 INDEX EQUITY) is approaching the overboughtarea according to our models.
- If the KOSPI 200 can rise for another week, it would be perfectly ripe for a large, high probability SHORT trade.
- The probability of WEEKLY reversal in the range between the last Close (355) and the 363 resistance limit is between 50% and 75%, pretty high.
[KE Holdings (BEKE US, BUY, TP US$25) Earnings Review]: Housing Inventory Resolution Drives Recovery
- Beike reported C4Q24 revenue beat our estimate/consensus by 8.4%/7.4%, non-GAAP OP miss our estimate/consensus by 37.5%/21.6%, due to front-loading expansion cost.
- We expect Beike to take 2-3ppt of market share in a rebalancing property market in 2025.
- We keep the stock as BUY and keep TP at US$25.
Korea’s FSC Just Dropped the Final Playbook on the Full Restart of Short Selling.
- Today’s update clarifies which brokers are fully linked to NSDS, giving them an edge in short-selling speed and flexibility, while others face more execution constraints.
- This leads to a clear execution risk gap, requiring traders to factor in trade efficiency differences based on their broker.
- With lower short-selling restriction triggers, liquidity and short-covering dynamics will shift, requiring traders to reassess market impact and adjust strategies accordingly.
Manappuram Finance: Bain Capital’s Entry Signals a New Chapter, But Challenges Remain
- Bain Capital is acquiring a 41.7–46% stake in Manappuram Finance (MGFL IN), marking a shift from a promoter-led to a professionally managed NBFC.
- This deal injects INR 4,385 crore in fresh capital, strengthens governance, and positions Manappuram for growth beyond gold loans into microfinance, vehicle loans, and housing finance.
- While execution risks remain, Bain’s track record in financial services suggests a long-term transformation, potentially closing Manappuram’s valuation gap with Muthoot Finance.
MDAI: Burn Study Topline Data
- Spectral AI is developing an AI-guided predictive medical device that employs multispectral imaging (MSI) to estimate a wound’s capacity to heal.
- The company is pursuing indications in burn and diabetic foot ulcers (DFUs) with the former receiving support from BARDA & other government agencies.
- Spectral is distinguished by its combination of MSI and AI to improve diagnoses.
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