Daily Brief Financials: Japan Post Bank, China Merchants Bank H, Neptune Insurance Holdings, Westpac Banking, Lendbuzz, USD, China Jinmao Holdings, Banco De Sabadell SA and more

• In Friday’s Monetary Policy Statement, the BOJ announced it would start selling down its holdings in ETFs and J-REITs at the pace of ¥620bn and ¥5.5bn/year, respectively. BIG NEWS!
• That is US$17mm of ETFs and US$150k of J-REITs per day. The BOJ suggests it is 0.05% of volume per day. That’s close. SMALL EFFECT. 
• Given ¥15trln of buybacks and ¥5trln+ of dividend reinvestment + NISA account buys, plus ¥trlns of cross-holding selldowns/year, this is a total nothingburger, even if they up the pace.

• “Beautiful Skew” nowhere this past week. The meat of the wider parts of the AH premia curve saw Hs underperform even as liquid Hs outperformed As average by 0.6%.
• Last week’s long reco on CNOOC Ltd (883 HK) saw the H-share underperform its A by 6.56%. It was a bad week. 
• The data tables below update on a daily basis in the Tools section of Smartkarma. The SOUTHBOUND Flow Monitor and AH Pairs Monitor are both there for all SK readers.

• Neptune Holdings will offer 18.4 million shares at $18-$20 and is scheduled to debut on October 1st. 
• It should be noted that the entirety of this offering is secondary and Neptune will not receive any proceeds from the sale of Class A common stock.
• The cornerstone investors, T. Rowe Price Investment Management and AllianceBernstein L.P. have indicated for up to $75 million in this offering. 

• Context: The Westpac Banking (WBC AU) vs. VanEck Australian Banks (MVB AU) price-ratio has deviated more than two standard deviations from its one-year average.
• Highlights: The dislocation highlights the recent outperformance of Westpac vs. some of its peers, pointing to a potential underweight in a portfolio context.
• Why Read: Essential for quantitative traders seeking mean-reversion opportunities, with detailed execution framework, risk management protocols, and historical simulation showing the statistical basis for this relative value play.

• Lendbuzz filed for an IPO on September 12th for a potential October debut. 
• They serve consumers with thin and no credit files, or credit invisibles, and those traditionally called near prime (consumers with VantageScores® of 601-719).
• They had total revenue of $101.3 million, $175.4 million, and $281.5 million and net income of $15.0 million, $11.2 million, and $24.3 million in 2022, 2023, and 2024, respectively.

• The Federal Reserve is expected to ease interest rates by 50 basis points this year, aligning with a forecast of 100 basis points of easing by next January.
• The Fed prioritizing its labor market mandate over its inflation target may lead to better growth and higher inflation outcomes next year.
• The yield curve has been volatile but is currently fairly valued, with potential for steepening due to asymmetrically dovish reaction function and Fed independence considerations.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

• In today’s Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: China Jinmao, ReNew Energy
• UST yields climbed 1-2 bps across the curve on Friday, albeit there were no new macro developments. The yield on the 2Y UST rose 1 bp to 3.57%, while that on the 10Y UST was up 2 bps at 4.13%. Equities continued to rally and notched fresh records, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq up 0.5% and 0.7% at 6,664 and 22,631, respectively.
• US President Donald Trump wrote on Truth Social on Friday that he had a “very productive call” with Chinese leader Xi Jinping, including Beijing’s approval of a deal on TikTok. Mr Trump added that he would meet Mr Xi at the APEC summit in South Korea (to be held from October 31st to November 1st), and would visit China in early 2026.

• BBVA’s revised all-share offer removes the discount but offers minimal premium, testing institutional appetite amid weak synergies and a fixed acceptance window ending 7 October.
• The absence of cash and refusal to raise terms again leave limited upside optionality, making the risk/reward still favorable for a tactical long SAB / short BBVA trade.
• Key focus now shifts to institutional sentiment, final acceptance levels, and governance risks, as tax neutrality alone may not be enough to ensure majority support.