In today’s briefing:
- Japan Post Bank US$4bn Deal Updates – Needs to Correct More. Discount Vs Deal Performance Analysis
- Hang Seng Index (HSI): Trends in PUT Strikes and Open Interest Visualized in Animation and Charts
- Asia Real Estate Tracker (06-Mar-2025): 7/10 Senior Directors Confident in Data Centres, But Talent Shortage Will Widen
- Hang Seng Index (HSI): Trends in CALL Strikes and Open Interest Visualized in Animation and Charts
- Insignia Financial (IFL AU): The Field Narrows As Bain And CC Capital Bump Terms
- CLAR SP: Bullish in Singapore Industrial and Strong Asset Portfolio to Drive Shareholders Returns
- Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia
Japan Post Bank US$4bn Deal Updates – Needs to Correct More. Discount Vs Deal Performance Analysis
- Japan Post Holdings (6178 JP) (JPH) aims to sell around US$4bn worth of Japan Post Bank (7182 JP) (JPB), trimming its stake to below 50%.
- JPH had last sold around US$9bn worth of JPB shares in Mar 2023. That deal had a similar structure and it didn’t end up performing well.
- We have looked at the deal dynamics in our previous notes. In this note, we talk about updates and look at discounts vs performance for past secondary deals.
Hang Seng Index (HSI): Trends in PUT Strikes and Open Interest Visualized in Animation and Charts
- Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX) put options show concentrated positioning at the 19,000 and 20,000 strike levels.
- Traders continue to establish new positions approximately 15%-20% below current market levels, suggesting protection against major market corrections rather than minor pullbacks. The focus is on near-term risk.
- Implied volatility has remained stable at 25-30% over the past two weeks, consistent with a broadly sideways movement in the index itself.
Asia Real Estate Tracker (06-Mar-2025): 7/10 Senior Directors Confident in Data Centres, But Talent Shortage Will Widen
- 70% of Senior Directors are confident in data centres, showing faith in their reliability and efficiency despite challenges.
- HPL’s acquisition of InterContinental Auckland for $102M marks its entry into the New Zealand market, expanding its portfolio.
- Stuart Grant’s appointment as head of Hongkong Land’s $8B Shanghai project highlights the company’s commitment to growth and development in the region.
Hang Seng Index (HSI): Trends in CALL Strikes and Open Interest Visualized in Animation and Charts
- Market traders of Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX) call options maintain significant holdings in lower strikes, with notable concentration at the 20,000 strike level.
- Open interest data reveals significant increase in open interest for 25,000 and 26,000 strike calls since late February, reflecting active trading as traders built new positions.
- Despite increased trading activity and changes in market positioning, implied volatility has remained stable at 25-30% over the past two weeks, reflecting a consistent market sentiment.
Insignia Financial (IFL AU): The Field Narrows As Bain And CC Capital Bump Terms
- Bain Capital and CC Capital have both bumped indicative terms to $5/share, a 63% premium to Insignia Financial (IFL AU)’s undisturbed closing share price of $3.06 on December 11 2024.
- Both suitors have been granted four weeks of exclusivity. Confirmatory due diligence is expected to be completed within six weeks. IFL’s board is supportive at A$5/share or more.
- Where’s Brookfield on all this? A local media source previously reported that at least one suitor was losing interest.
CLAR SP: Bullish in Singapore Industrial and Strong Asset Portfolio to Drive Shareholders Returns
- CLAR is Singapore’s largest industrial REIT with S$16bn of assets across key markets with exposure in business parks, logistics and data centers
- We think CLAR has a well diversified and resilient asset portfolio which can withstand any external shocks and drive organic growth
- We think there is some interest rate risk but in general the impact is limited. S-REITs were over-corrected YTD and valuation is not demanding
Lucror Analytics – Morning Views Asia
- In today’s Morning Views publication we comment on developments of the following high yield issuers: China Vanke, Longfor Group, Cikarang Listrindo
- The Chinese government has announced a GDP growth target of “around 5%” for 2025 (matching the growth target and actual level achieved in 2024), according to Premier Li Qiang’s annual government work report unveiled during the Two Sessions meeting.
- Meanwhile, the government has raised the fiscal budget deficit target to 4% of GDP (vs. 3% previously), and lowered its annual CPI inflation target to “around 2%” (reflecting downward pressure on prices).
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