In today’s briefing:
- Jiangsu Hengrui Medicine (600276.CH) – Share Price Is at Risk of Correction
- Max Healthcare (MAXHEALTH IN): Continues to Strengthen Presence in North India
- Cadrenal Therapeutics Inc – September 16, 2024
- Pacific Smiles (PSQ AU): Genesis’ Off-Market A$1.90/Share Offer
- Inside the 23andMe Buyout Rumors: Will Anne Wojcicki Take the Company Private?
- Sagility India Pre-IPO – Healthcare-Tech Exposure Although Alarming Concentration Risks to Watch For
Jiangsu Hengrui Medicine (600276.CH) – Share Price Is at Risk of Correction
- On the surface, it seems that Hengrui’s performance growth in 24H1 is very high, but if excluding the upfront payment from Merck, the Company’s performance actually falls short of expectations.
- Our forecast of revenue growth in 2024, 2025, 2026 (excluding Merck’s upfront payment) is 12% YoY, 8% YoY, 15% YoY, respectively. By 2026, Hengrui may still suffer from VBP.
- Hengrui is overvalued and reasonable P/E is about 30 (or lower). We also don’t think Hengrui’s valuation should be higher than that of BeiGene. Current high valuation cannot be justified.
Max Healthcare (MAXHEALTH IN): Continues to Strengthen Presence in North India
- Max Healthcare Institute (MAXHEALT IN) to acquire controlling stake in Jaypee Healthcare (JHL), which owns 3 hospitals in Uttar Pradesh, including the renowned 500-beds Jaypee Hospital, Noida.
- JHL reported revenue of INR4.21B and EBITDA of INR70M in FY24. With an EV of INR16.6B, the deal values JHL at EV/EBITDA of 23.7x, which seems reasonable.
- This acquisition will significantly enhance Max Healthcare’s network and strengthen its leadership position in NCR, a region which is home to around 46M people.
Cadrenal Therapeutics Inc – September 16, 2024
- We are initiating coverage of Cadrenal Therapeutics, Inc. (CVKD) with a valuation of $30.00.
- Cadrenal is a clinical stage biopharmaceutical company developing tecarfarin, a novel oral and reversible anticoagulant intended to prevent deaths due to blood clots in patients with rare cardiovascular conditions, including those with left ventricular assist devices (LVADs), end-stage kidney disease (ESKD) with atrial fibrillation (AFib), and mechanical heart valves with difficult to control time in therapeutic range (TTR).
- The company will be meeting with the FDA to discuss the design of a Phase 3 clinical trial of tecarfarin in patients with LVADs. Cadrenal has also been in discussion with Abbott, the maker of the only LVAD for sale in the U.S., regarding the Phase 3 trial, which we anticipate initiating in the first half of 2025.
Pacific Smiles (PSQ AU): Genesis’ Off-Market A$1.90/Share Offer
- After Crescent Capital ‘s National Dental Care’ (NDC) A$2.05/share Offer, by way of Scheme, failed on the 9 August. it was just a question of when Genesis re-loaded its Offer.
- Genesis has now announced a A$1.90/share off-market Offer ( its 29 July A$1.90/share approach was a Scheme), conditional on a 90% minimum acceptance. Pricing falls within the IE’ fair value range.
- Pacific Smiles (PSQ AU)‘s board previously gave unanimous support for NDC’s prior A$1.90/share Offer. The question is whether the 90% hurdle is met. I think it will.
Inside the 23andMe Buyout Rumors: Will Anne Wojcicki Take the Company Private?
- 23andMe, the renowned genetic testing and health data company, has recently garnered significant attention with its co-founder and CEO, Anne Wojcicki, expressing openness to considering third-party acquisition offers.
- This comes on the heels of her ongoing efforts to take the company private, despite the board’s rejection of her initial proposal.
- With a combination of promising proprietary assets and a shaky financial trajectory, 23andMe finds itself at a crossroads.
Sagility India Pre-IPO – Healthcare-Tech Exposure Although Alarming Concentration Risks to Watch For
- Sagility India (2058883D IN) is looking to raise US$500m in its upcoming India IPO.
- Sagility India is a pure-play healthcare focused solutions and services provider to Payers and Providers.
- In this note, we look at the firm’s past performance.
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