In today’s briefing:
- China Healthcare Weekly (Nov.2) – 11th National VBP, More BD Deal to Come, WuXi AppTec 25Q3 Results
- HK CEO/Director Dealings (31 Oct 2025): Shanghai Chicmax, AuGroup (Shenzhen), Twintek, Rongzun
- Pre-IPO Softcare (PHIP Updates) – Some Points Worth the Attention
- Sumitomo Pharma (4506 JP): Guidance See Upward Revision as Orgovyx, Gemtesa Gain Momentum in H1FY26
- Celltrion Inc Update – Is It Time to Go Long (068270 KS)
- AMGEN INC. Equity Research Flash Note – August 04, 2025
- Astellas Pharma (4503 JP): Strong H1FY26 Performance Leads to Upward Revision of FY26 Guidance
China Healthcare Weekly (Nov.2) – 11th National VBP, More BD Deal to Come, WuXi AppTec 25Q3 Results
- The 11th national VBP officially started last week. The average price reduction of the selected products is 53%. Due to the “anchor price” mechanism, VBP is becoming increasingly rational.
- The purchasing power of the global pharmaceutical industry on Chinese assets is still far from saturated that we have reason to expect more transactions to come to Chinese pharmaceutical companies.
- Based on WuXi AppTec’s 25Q3 results, CDMO business has emerged from fundamental turning point following the recovery of overseas biotech industry, but the inflection point of CRO is lagging behind.
HK CEO/Director Dealings (31 Oct 2025): Shanghai Chicmax, AuGroup (Shenzhen), Twintek, Rongzun
- The data in this insight is collated from the “shareholding disclosure” link on the HKEx website.
- Often there is a corresponding HKEx announcement on the increase – or decrease – in the shareholding by directors.
- However, such disclosures are by no means an absolute. These insights also flag those companies where shares have been pledged, both recently and ongoing.
Pre-IPO Softcare (PHIP Updates) – Some Points Worth the Attention
- The rise of Softcare is in line with the logic of “Chinese supply chain going global”.It has solved channel/cost problems through localized production, quickly captured market share with low-price tactic.
- Our forecast benefiting from market penetration/capacity expansion, revenue growth could be 15% YoY in 2025.In 2026-2027, as competition intensifies, revenue growth may slow down to 12% YoY, 10% YoY respectively.
- Given that Softcare’s main market is in Africa, which is characterized by high growth and high risk, a forecasted P/E of 8-12x for 2025 could be a comfortable valuation range.
Sumitomo Pharma (4506 JP): Guidance See Upward Revision as Orgovyx, Gemtesa Gain Momentum in H1FY26
- Sumitomo Pharma (4506 JP) revised revenue guidance upward by ¥74B to ¥429B on the back of continued strong sales in North America (up 56% YoY to ¥163B).
- Orgovyx (revenue jumped 95% YoY to ¥69B) witnessed solid patient growth in medicare patients while Gemtesa (revenue rose 72% to ¥43B) improved market share.
- The revised profit numbers implies that the company expects the SG&A and R&D cost to be on the rise H2FY26 onwards leading a net loss in the second half.
Celltrion Inc Update – Is It Time to Go Long (068270 KS)
- Celltrion Inc has significant underperformed over the last year and experienced a big derating.
- Good results, but the numbers fell short of expectations due to the large biosimilar hype.
- Outlook over the next five years is very promising, with its revenue target market value expected to almost double.
AMGEN INC. Equity Research Flash Note – August 04, 2025
- Our estimations for FY 2025 annual revenue of Amgen Inc. (or the company) range at around $35,429 million and for FY 2026 at around $36,138 million.
- The company’s annual revenue reached $33,424 million in 2024 compared to $28,190 million in 2023, posting an increase by 18.57%.
- Gross (or operating) profit for FY 2024 was $7,258 million, decreased by 8.09% compared to $7,897 million for the corresponding period of 2023.
Astellas Pharma (4503 JP): Strong H1FY26 Performance Leads to Upward Revision of FY26 Guidance
- Astellas Pharma (4503 JP) announced better-than-expected H1FY26 result, with continued double-digit revenue growth, driven by key brands, and significant improvement in profitability being the key highlights.
- Strategic brands, which recorded 43% YoY revenue growth and contributed 21% of revenue, drove overall revenue growth. Cost optimization through SMT led to margin improvement.
- Astellas has raised FY26 revenue and profit guidance. The company expects FY26 revenue of ¥2,030B (+6% YoY). FY26 core operating profit is expected to increase 25% YoY to ¥490B.
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