In today’s briefing:
- GMO Internet (4784) – Shares Appear Manipulated/Squeezed (Again), but ParentCo MUST SELL
- [Japan M&A] Polaris MBO for DD Group (3073) – Too Light But Probably a Done Deal
- TOPIX Inclusions: Who Is Ready (Jul 2025)
- DD Group (3073 JP): Polaris Capital-Sponsored MBO Is Light
- Hikari Tsushin’s Portfolio
- Astellas Pharma (4503 JP): Izervay on Strong Footing, Strategic Brands Key for Future
- Ryohin Keikaku (7453 JP): Q3 FY08/25 flash update
- Kasumigaseki Hotel REIT Pre-IPO: Young Hotel Assets and Improving Economics
- Goldwin’s The North Face License Surpasses ¥100 Billion but Faces Headwinds
- Shin Pro Maint (6086 JP): Q1 FY02/26 flash update
GMO Internet (4784) – Shares Appear Manipulated/Squeezed (Again), but ParentCo MUST SELL
- GMO Internet (4784 JP) was squeezed after a merger which was a Reverse Takeover followed by a ridiculous TOPIX inclusion. Then the parent tried an offering, which failed.
- The clearing price demanded was WAAAY lower so the offering was pulled. Shares fell 70%, then bounced 65%. Now 48x book and 66x EBITDA for an ISP. Super expensive. Manipulated.
- ParentCo needs to sell 90mm shares ASAP. The only clean way is through a liquidation trust to get shares lower before a larger offering.
[Japan M&A] Polaris MBO for DD Group (3073) – Too Light But Probably a Done Deal
- Diamond Dining (3073 JP) (DD Group) head Matsumura-san appears to be getting out in this Polaris MBO for the dining group.
- The premium is low, and the the price is probably light, but there are a couple of small things which mean it isn’t quite as light as it might look.
- But the company prints cash, so yeah, it’s light. This should probably be a bit better, but F&B is a fickle business.
TOPIX Inclusions: Who Is Ready (Jul 2025)
- Quiddity’s “Who is Ready” series of insights aims to objectively identify names listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange that are potential additions to the TOPIX Index in future.
- At the end of July 2025, GMO Financial Gate (4051 JP) and Azoom (3496 JP) will be included in the TOPIX Index.
- Newly-Listed company Kitazato (368A JP) will also be included in the TOPIX index at the end of this month.
DD Group (3073 JP): Polaris Capital-Sponsored MBO Is Light
- Diamond Dining (3073 JP) has recommended a Polaris Capital-sponsored MBO at JPY1,700, a 17.8% premium to the last close price.
- The offer is light and is 16% below the midpoint of the IFA DCF valuation range. The process was lacking as there was no auction.
- DD has no recent history of activism. Therefore, the likelihood of a bump is low unless there is vocal opposition or an activist becomes a substantial shareholder.
Hikari Tsushin’s Portfolio
This write-up is about Hikari Tsushin — a Japanese sales organization run by a visionary founder called Yasumitsu Shigeta
It’s been much talked about on Twitter and Substack, but few of the write-ups discuss Hikari Tsushin’s portfolio of publicly listed equities
I am personally not particularly interested in Hikari Tsushin itself, as it is primarily a sales organization helping other businesses find customers
Astellas Pharma (4503 JP): Izervay on Strong Footing, Strategic Brands Key for Future
- Astellas Pharma (4503 JP) announced that in Q1FY26 the sales of their drug Izervay (avacincaptad pegol intravitreal solution) in the U.S. market will be ¥15.9B (~$110M, up 25% YoY).
- Strategic brands (Padcev, Izervay, Veozah, Vyloy, and Xospata) revenue expanded to ¥336B (+¥176B or +110% YoY) in FY25, representing 18% of the total revenue.
- Astellas agreement with Evopoint Biosciences for a novel investigational clinical-stage antibody-drug conjugate (ADC) targeting CLDN18.2, will help expand its pipeline and augurs well given its expertise in similar therapies (Vyloy).
Ryohin Keikaku (7453 JP): Q3 FY08/25 flash update
- Operating revenue increased by 19.2% YoY to JPY591.1bn, driven by new store openings and solid sales performance.
- The company revised its FY08/25 forecast, projecting operating revenue of JPY776.0bn and operating profit of JPY70.0bn.
- Comparable-store sales in Japan rose 15.1% YoY, with customer traffic up 8.4% and average sales per customer up 6.2%.
Kasumigaseki Hotel REIT Pre-IPO: Young Hotel Assets and Improving Economics
- Kasumigaseki Hotel REIT (401A JP) is looking to raise up to US$195m in its upcoming Japan IPO.
- It is a REIT with hotel assets, sponsored by Kasumigaseki Capital (3498 JP) .
- In this note, we look at the firm’s past performance.
Goldwin’s The North Face License Surpasses ¥100 Billion but Faces Headwinds
- Goldwin had a solid year last year thanks to its license for The North Face, but there are now headwinds.
- Inbound tourist support is falling away, and the push into footwear has not offset weakness elsewhere, while domestic consumer confidence remains patchy.
- But Goldwin’s long-term prospects remain positive as its own brand is beginning to gain traction, establishing strong foundations in China.
Shin Pro Maint (6086 JP): Q1 FY02/26 flash update
- Revenue increased 17.0% YoY to JPY6.7bn, driven by strong performance in Emergency and Preventive Maintenance Services.
- Operating profit rose 30.6% YoY to JPY446mn, with an operating profit margin up 0.7pp YoY to 6.6%.
- Shin Maint Holdings expanded market share by winning projects from competitors and forming a specialized air conditioning team.
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