In today’s briefing:
- StubWorld: Absent Borrow, GMO Internet (4784) Is An Avoid
- Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP): Drawing Nearer to a Conclusion
- Nikkei 225 Index Outlook: Bullish, Possibly Directed Past 41k
- Keisei Electric Railway: Oversold on Caution, Not on Fundamentals
- Money Forward (3994) | Mid-Sized Bets Start Paying Off
- Toumei (4439 JP): Q3 FY08/25 flash update
- EJ Holdings Inc (2153 JP): Full-year FY05/25 flash update
- Sumitomo Corp (8053 JP): £7.5B UK Clean Energy Pivot to Boost Infra Exposure and Earnings Quality
- Vector Inc (6058 JP): Q1 FY02/26 flash update
- J Com Holdings (2462 JP): Full-year FY05/25 flash update
StubWorld: Absent Borrow, GMO Internet (4784) Is An Avoid
- GMO Internet (4784 JP) stays listed if/when GMO Internet Group (9449 JP) sells (a lot of) shares. Yet 4784 remains stubbornly – manipulated (?) – at nosebleed valuations.
- Preceding my comments on the GMO group – and Dah Sing Financial (440 HK) and Axiata Group (AXIATA MK) – are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos
- Hese relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation >20%.
Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP): Drawing Nearer to a Conclusion
- Yageo Corporation (2327 TT) has extended the close of its offer for Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP) from July 15 to August 1, the end of the waiting period for FEFTA approval.
- Yageo remains confident of securing FEFTA approval. Blocking an acquisition of a Type 1 (non-designated business sector) company by a Taiwanese company would set a bad precedent.
- There is a medium to high probability that Yageo secures FEFTA approval. Minebea Mitsumi (6479 JP) is likely to walk as it signalled a limited appetite to match Yageo’s offer.
Nikkei 225 Index Outlook: Bullish, Possibly Directed Past 41k
- The Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX) bounced this week, after 2 weeks down, after previously reaching a peak at 40852, the area above 41k has been a strong barrier since 2024.
- Our model says the current Nikkei 225 trend could rise to 41k, or even above 41k.
- The index’s latest 2-week pullback was shallow and did not even reach our model’s Q2 support level, this is a bullish behavior (buy the dip).
Keisei Electric Railway: Oversold on Caution, Not on Fundamentals
- Keisei Electric Railway Co (9009 JP) shares fell 52% from February 2024 peak, with losses deepening after its conservative mid-term plan and the failed activist board proposal in June 2025.
- However, we believe the company’s mid-term guidance is overly conservative and underestimates the company’s underlying earnings potential
- With depressed valuation, fare-driven revenue growth, and volume recovery potential, we see limited downside and an appealing opportunity for medium-term price appreciation.
Money Forward (3994) | Mid-Sized Bets Start Paying Off
- Core Business acceleration: Business segment sales +28% YoY, driven by Mid-sized corporate strength; ARR +32% YoY to ¥29.6bn.
- Non-Core drag explains topline miss: Total sales +11.7% YoY to ¥11.5bn vs est. ¥12.1bn; ex-Hirac Fund, sales +18% YoY.
- Margin strength: Record-high EBITDA of ¥0.8bn (7% margin), achieved without one-off gains; signals improving core profitability.
Toumei (4439 JP): Q3 FY08/25 flash update
- Toumei’s Q3 FY08/25 revenue reached JPY21.2bn, a 25.8% YoY increase, with record highs in all profit categories.
- Office Denki 119 revenue rose 44.9% YoY to JPY9.3bn, with segment profit up 104.8% YoY to JPY1.5bn.
- Office Solutions segment revenue grew 64.9% YoY to JPY2.5bn, with profit increasing 47.5% YoY to JPY276mn.
EJ Holdings Inc (2153 JP): Full-year FY05/25 flash update
- In FY05/25, E-J Holdings reported revenue of JPY42.7bn, operating profit of JPY4.5bn, and net income of JPY3.2bn.
- For FY05/26, E-J Holdings forecasts revenue of JPY47.0bn, operating profit of JPY5.0bn, and net income of JPY3.4bn.
- E-J Holdings formulated E-J-Vision2030 and E-J-Plan2027 to enhance business foundation and corporate value.
Sumitomo Corp (8053 JP): £7.5B UK Clean Energy Pivot to Boost Infra Exposure and Earnings Quality
- Sumitomo’s £7.5B (~¥1.46T) UK clean energy investment marks a pivot from trading and resource-linked businesses to long-duration, regulated infrastructure—anchoring its Energy Transformation strategy.
- Annual deployment (~¥146B) is ~24% of operating cash flow; funded via SPVs, project finance, and equity partners. Majority of spend is front-weighted through FY2031, earnings back-loaded.
- Currently trading at ~5.7x EV/EBITDA, a successful infra scale-up could justify a multiple closer to 6.5–7.0x—in line with peers like Marubeni or Mitsui. ROE uplift is likely beyond FY2028.
Vector Inc (6058 JP): Q1 FY02/26 flash update
- Revenue for Q1 FY02/26 was JPY14.8bn, a 6.7% YoY increase, with operating profit rising 22.9% YoY.
- PR and Advertising revenue declined 5.0% YoY, while Press Release Distribution saw a 19.7% YoY revenue increase.
- Direct Marketing revenue grew 36.7% YoY, but recorded an operating loss of JPY224mn due to increased ad spending.
J Com Holdings (2462 JP): Full-year FY05/25 flash update
- Revenue increased by 3.1% YoY to JPY62.3bn, while operating profit decreased by 11.5% YoY to JPY3.0bn.
- Child-Rearing Support Service revenue rose 8.6% YoY to JPY33.0bn, but operating profit fell 11.3% YoY.
- Comprehensive Human Resources Service revenue declined 5.6% YoY to JPY20.6bn, yet operating profit increased by 1.0% YoY.
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