In today’s briefing:
- [Japan M&A] Bloomberg Reports Bain MBO on Nissin (9066) May Come Monday – The Implied Price Is Light
- Imagica (6879 JP): MBO Tender Offer at JPY795
- TOPIX Inclusions: Who Is Ready (May 2025)
- Nihon Denkei (9908 JP): Full-year FY03/25 flash update
- Kissei Pharmaceutical (4547 JP): Steady FY25, Licensing Fees To Drag FY26, Margins To Stay Strong
- Last Week in Event SPACE: NTT Data Corp, Zeekr, Shibaura Electronics, Swire Pacific/ThaiNamthip
- (Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: Torii Pharma, Mitsu. Shokuhin, Domain, Gold Road, Canvest, Shibaura, Tsuruha
- With Transitional Measures Ending, Improving the Quality of Existing Listed Companies Will Be Key
[Japan M&A] Bloomberg Reports Bain MBO on Nissin (9066) May Come Monday – The Implied Price Is Light
- Last year, Nissin Corp (9066 JP) started race-walking the good governance walk. The day they released earnings they announced crossholding sales and an overnight 23.61% ToSTNeT-3 Buyback (executed successfully).
- They also expected 19% Net Income Growth (to go with accretion), and in November, nearly doubled their dividend on new payout policy (minimum 4% DOE).
- Now, Bloomberg reports they are considering going private via a Bain MBO at ¥100bn+ (or a 30% premium).
Imagica (6879 JP): MBO Tender Offer at JPY795
- Imagica Robot Holdings (6879 JP) has recommended a MBO tender offer from Shunjiro Nagase (President) at JPY795 per share, a 43.0% premium to the undisturbed price.
- The offer is reasonable compared to historical trading ranges and is above the midpoint of the IFA DCF valuation range.
- Irrevocables (55.40% ownership ratio) pave the way for deal completion. The tender runs from 12 May to 20 June (30 business days).
TOPIX Inclusions: Who Is Ready (May 2025)
- Quiddity’s “Who is Ready” series of insights aims to objectively identify names listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange that are potential additions to the TOPIX Index in future.
- TOPIX Inclusions of Baudroie (4413 JP) and JX Advanced Metals (5016 JP) took place at the end of April 2025.
- Core Concept Technologies Inc (4371 JP) continues to be in our watchlist as a potential TOPIX Inclusion candidate.
Nihon Denkei (9908 JP): Full-year FY03/25 flash update
- Nihon Denkei’s FY03/25 consolidated sales grew 11.7% YoY, with a gross profit of JPY16.9bn and operating profit up 6.9% YoY.
- The company announced FY03/26 earnings forecast with sales at JPY124.0bn, operating profit at JPY4.5bn, and EPS of JPY263.21.
- INNOVATION2030 Ver.2.0 aims for growth by expanding into growth markets and enhancing global business amid macroeconomic uncertainty.
Kissei Pharmaceutical (4547 JP): Steady FY25, Licensing Fees To Drag FY26, Margins To Stay Strong
- Kissei Pharmaceutical (4547 JP) reported 16.9% YoY jump in revenue during FY25 driven by Beova and Tavneos despite price revision pressures and generic competition.
- The company has issued FY26 guidance of revenue rising 3.6%, with pharmaceuticals segment remaining flat dragged by lower overseas licensing fees.
- The only trigger point at this moment happens to be the recent licensing deals signed by the company with various players gives it an opportunity to expand offerings and market.
Last Week in Event SPACE: NTT Data Corp, Zeekr, Shibaura Electronics, Swire Pacific/ThaiNamthip
- We have a deal in NTT Data Corp (9613 JP). It’s big, liquid, and a great place to hide for long-only investors who are bearish the market.
- Li Shufu-backed Geely Auto (175 HK) offers an ordinary 13.6% premium for 65.7-held Zeekr (ZK US). Li/Geely have the necessary votes to force a privatisation. But still might bump terms.
- Yageo Corporation (2327 TT) has now strongly overbid Minebea’s weak overbid of Yageo’s strong overbid of Minebea’s weak overbid of Yageo’s initial hostile offer for Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP).
(Mostly) Asia-Pac M&A: Torii Pharma, Mitsu. Shokuhin, Domain, Gold Road, Canvest, Shibaura, Tsuruha
- I tally 49 – mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac – transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma.
- Five new deals discussed on Smartkarma this week: SmartPay Holdings (SMP AU), NTT Data Corp (9613 JP), Zeekr (ZK US), Torii Pharmaceutical (4551 JP), and Mitsubishi Shokuhin (7451 JP).
- Key updates/news took place on: Domain Holdings Australia (DHG AU), Gold Road Resources (GOR AU), Canvest Environmental Protection Group (1381 HK), Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP), Tsuruha Holdings (3391 JP).
With Transitional Measures Ending, Improving the Quality of Existing Listed Companies Will Be Key
- There are two possible ways to improve the quality of the TSE: one is to exit the market and the other is to improve quality in existing companies.
- While few companies are still exiting through de-listing, fewer companies will migrate to other markets going forward, so the quality of existing listed companies must be improved.
- Two years after the “TSE’s request,” the number of companies with P/Bs of less than 1x has not yet noticeably decreased, indicating that quality improvement is still a ways off.
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