In today’s briefing:
- [Japan M&A] Seven Bank (8410) – Seven & I Selldown, Itochu Buy-In, Not on My Bingo Card But Not Bad
- [Japan M&A] Shibaura in Limbo – “Neutral” On Minebea And “Reserves Opinion” On YAGEO Bid, Waiting…
- Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP): Board’s Changed Stance as Minebea Hopes Reg Approvals Derail Yageo
- Metaplanet (3350) | Japan’s Bitcoin Rocket
- Fast Retailing (9983 JP)Tactical Setup: Buy-This-Dip
- Ichiken Co Ltd (1847 JP): Full-year FY03/25 flash update
- IBJ (6071 JP) – Momentum Building with Diversification
[Japan M&A] Seven Bank (8410) – Seven & I Selldown, Itochu Buy-In, Not on My Bingo Card But Not Bad
- Seven Bank Ltd (8410 JP) has been the ugly duckling of Japan e-banks since it got competition in the form of Rakuten Bank (5838) and SBI Sumishin (7163).
- Last year, it was posited, and then confirmed, that Seven & I Holdings (3382 JP) wanted to sell down to de-consolidate. NTT Docomo wanted to buy a bank.
- I thought it a good match but no deal has been done. So now we get a different deal – it’s weird for Itochu, but bodes well for Seven Bank
[Japan M&A] Shibaura in Limbo – “Neutral” On Minebea And “Reserves Opinion” On YAGEO Bid, Waiting…
- Yageo Corporation (2327 TT) approached Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP) for a takeover at ¥4300. Shibaura dismissed them and asked Minebea Mitsumi (6479 JP) to overbid. They did at ¥4500.
- Then Yageo overbid Minebea at ¥5400, who then overbid Yageo at ¥5500, who then re-overbid at ¥6200. Despite not having its FEFTA Approval in place, YAGEO overbid and launched.
- The Minebea CEO objected. We don’t know status. Now the Shibaura Special Committee has paused, supporting but not recommending the Minebea bid and Neutral on Yageo. We are in limbo.
Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP): Board’s Changed Stance as Minebea Hopes Reg Approvals Derail Yageo
- The Shibaura Electronics (6957 JP) Board supports Minebea Mitsumi (6479 JP) JPY5,500 offer, but has shifted its recommendation from tendering to a neutral stance.
- The Board maintains that it is not yet in a position to provide an opinion on Yageo’s JPY6,200 offer due to concerns on feasibility and synergies.
- Minebea hopes Yageo will withdraw due to its failure to secure regulatory approvals. If Yageo secures the required approvals, Minebea will actively consider measures.
Metaplanet (3350) | Japan’s Bitcoin Rocket
- Metaplanet’s secret weapon? Moving-strike warrants that raise equity into strength—fueling BTC buys while sidestepping the deep discounts typical of Japan’s small-cap raises.
- Forget buybacks. Metaplanet is redefining shareholder value by issuing stock, not retiring it—turning dilution into accretion via Bitcoin per-share growth.
- A 4.6x mNAV premium gives Metaplanet unmatched BTC buying power—creating a capital flywheel that most traditional treasuries can only envy.
Fast Retailing (9983 JP)Tactical Setup: Buy-This-Dip
- Fast Retailing (9983 JP) presents a mixed outlook characterized by strong earnings momentum tempered by some geopolitical and macroeconomic challenges. Analyst opinions are mixed but consensus is mostly = “Hold”.
- The stock started a pullback this week and is reaching a support zone that offers the possibility of entering LONG positions at a discounted price.
- This is a short-term tactical setup but the stock can be hold for the long run if the rally continues in the coming weeks.
Ichiken Co Ltd (1847 JP): Full-year FY03/25 flash update
- Ichiken’s FY03/25 revenue was JPY99.0bn, with operating profit at JPY6.9bn, and net income at JPY4.7bn.
- Construction business FY03/25 revenue reached JPY98.7bn, with operating profit at JPY8.7bn, orders rose 3.6% YoY.
- FY03/26 forecast: revenue JPY99.0bn, operating profit JPY5.4bn, net income JPY3.5bn, with a dividend of JPY140/share.
IBJ (6071 JP) – Momentum Building with Diversification
- Q1 FY12/25 results were ahead of expectations with +57.1% OP growth YoY.
- The core marriage agency business experienced steady growth, with both the Affiliate Business and the Directly Managed Lounge Business driving new membership growth with optimized marketing spend.
- IBJ is leveraging its core competencies in operating a leading matchmaking franchise model to expand into adjacent businesses and develop new earnings pillars, primarily the newly disclosed K Village Business segment and ‘NAYUTAS’, its Korean voice training and dance school operation.
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