In today’s briefing:
- Shinko Electric (6967) – All Approvals In, JIC Says “Mid-Feb” So Cash Is 19-21 March?
- Profit Targets for SoftBank Group (9984 JP) After Stargate AI Project Announcement
- StubWorld: Sun Corp (6736 JP) Trading Cheap to Cellebrite (CLBT US)
- Listing Criteria for the TSE Growth Market Is Expected to Be Raised Starting April 2026
- MIXI Inc. (2121) – Advancing Towards Strategic Objectives
Shinko Electric (6967) – All Approvals In, JIC Says “Mid-Feb” So Cash Is 19-21 March?
- JIC gave an official statement yesteday about the expected start of its Shinko Electric Industries (6967 JP) Tender Offer. A later-than-expected start has people asking questions.
- It has traded tighter since the SAMR approval news (I warned on 16 Dec it was coming and the next day it closed 6.6% gross).
- Below I discuss the language of the Conditions Precedent which would allow a MAC.
Profit Targets for SoftBank Group (9984 JP) After Stargate AI Project Announcement
- Softbank Group (9984 JP) went up >10% on Wednesday 22nd of January, after announcing a 500B USD venture with OpenAI and Oracle to build US AI infrastructure
- Based on our model reading, the stock is now overbought, but it could go higher rallying on the current frenzy
- Check the QUANTCHART below to find out how high the stock could go before stalling or pulling back.
StubWorld: Sun Corp (6736 JP) Trading Cheap to Cellebrite (CLBT US)
- Sun Corp (6736 JP) has retraced ~15% in the past month. Its 43.8% stake in Cellebrite (CLBT US) is worth ~186% of its market cap, an all-time high.
- Preceding my comments on Sun Corp are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.
- These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation >20%.
Listing Criteria for the TSE Growth Market Is Expected to Be Raised Starting April 2026
- TSE is likely to raise the current Growth Market listing criteria of at least 500 million yen in tradable equity market capitalization, probably starting in April 2026.
- Since listing examinations are already being conducted with the new criteria in mind, IPO reserves are being prepared with a larger market capitalization than before.
- It is unclear how much will be raised, but companies will prepare for listing by increasing its market capitalization through the use of the secondary market and M&A.
MIXI Inc. (2121) – Advancing Towards Strategic Objectives
- Q1-2 FY3/25 results were ahead of guidance in our view, with underlying earnings growth stemming from improved profitability in the Digital Entertainment segment and robust sales growth in both the Sports and Lifestyle segments.
- The governance issue disclosed in December 2024 involving improper transactions at subsidiary Chariloto appears to have been fully resolved with no contingent issues to resolve.
- The company has maintained FY3/25 guidance, and we view the earnings outlook for H2 FY3/25 to be positive due to a combination of stabilizing performance with sustained successful collaborative activity with Monster Strike and seasonal uplift in the Sports segment.
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