In today’s briefing:
- CHINA AI: Are US AI Giants Pushing for a Ban on Chinese Models?
- Base Oils and Lubricants: Weekly Global Market Review – 11 Sep ’26
- Global Base Oils Cargo Flows: Week To 11 September
- GOLD: Sold for Cash, Not for Cause — The Liquidity Flush Is the Entry
- Monday Macro Update: More Oil Price Gains, Treading Water, or Turning South?
CHINA AI: Are US AI Giants Pushing for a Ban on Chinese Models?
- The US is desperately trying to protect its declining market share in AI. The recent declarations of safety regulations could set the stage for a ban on Chinese AI models.
- Current AI safety discussions follow many measures the US has taken to stifle the rise of Chinese AI models, including export restrictions, accusations of illegal distillation, and global loyalty pledges.
- The US is faced with a dilemma: whether to protect its domestic AI players and risk lowering economic productivity or allow an open market where Chinese AI models may dominate
Base Oils and Lubricants: Weekly Global Market Review – 11 Sep ’26
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The base oils market is approaching the fourth quarter with a smaller supply surplus than usual, as tighter Asian and Group III balances leave less supply available to absorb further disruptions
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The base oils market is approaching the fourth quarter with less surplus than usual, after the third-quarter slowdown failed to produce the usual supply build.
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China and India are putting more pressure on available barrels, with China’s Group II balance tightening as India’s demand extends its recovery.
Global Base Oils Cargo Flows: Week To 11 September
- Several cargoes of Group II base oils loaded from Taiwan at end-August and early September, with all of them heading to Southeast Asia and one likely bound for India.
- A cargo of Group II base oils loaded from Taiwan in late July was set to reach East Coast South America at the end of this week.
- Singapore took delivery of more base oils from the Netherlands, adding to a shipment from the same country last week.
GOLD: Sold for Cash, Not for Cause — The Liquidity Flush Is the Entry
- Gold round-tripped 4,696 to 4,410 as Bessent’s expanded buyback failed in public — $5.19bn bought against a $10bn whisper — and Iran forced a liquidity flush into cash and oil.
- The selling is mechanical, not fundamental: ETF buying accelerated through the decline while US and Japanese 30-year yields broke to 2004 highs and all-time records respectively.
- BULLISH, Fair Value US$4,780 unchanged — now the WGC’s own key barrier at US$4,769-4,774. Add zone 4,225-4,283 at the rising 55-day, the WGC’s ideal floor.
Monday Macro Update: More Oil Price Gains, Treading Water, or Turning South?
- Given the ongoing uncertainty regarding the Strait of Hormuz, compounded by the uncertainty of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, it is still hazardous to call a top to this oil market.
- We see some analysts now emerging and stating that the market is now poised for a new phase of renewed price strength well above $100.00 per barrel.
- At this point, from a trading standpoint we will reserve final judgement in terms of the flat price, and remain focused on spread relationships.
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