In today’s briefing:
- CX Daily: China’s Struggle for Data Security
- PMI Consolidation Behind Contractions
- When Recession, Sir?
CX Daily: China’s Struggle for Data Security
Data / In Depth: China’s struggle for data security.
Covid-19 / China fleshes out ‘optimized’ Covid-19 response.
Pension / China’s personal pension system nears launch as insurers’ rules finalized.
PMI Consolidation Behind Contractions
- Differential surprises in the Nov-22 PMI surveys still reinforced the global trend towards falling activity. The US drop crystallised the convergence risk we flagged last month.
- Levels are consistent with broad Q4 activity declines, which would confirm a technical recession in the UK. Unemployment lags but is showing some signs of deterioration.
- Although there is arguably enough recessionary evidence for tightening to slow slightly in December, unemployment will need to have definitively turned for hikes to end.
When Recession, Sir?
- As my mentor used to say, any market practicioner can make headlines by screaming something wildly out-of-consensus but conveniently leaving the details of his forecast out of the equation.
- How many times have you heard that ‘‘the US Dollar will fall apart’’ or that ‘‘the real estate bubble will burst’’ over the last 10-20 years, yet without a clear time horizon for this call to play out?
- If only you got 1 USD (pun intended) for every time you heard something like this, you’ll be rich by now.
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