Daily BriefsMacro

Daily Brief Macro: CX Daily: China’s Struggle for Data Security and more

In today’s briefing:

  • CX Daily: China’s Struggle for Data Security
  • PMI Consolidation Behind Contractions
  • When Recession, Sir?

CX Daily: China’s Struggle for Data Security

By Caixin Global

  • Data / In Depth: China’s struggle for data security. 

  • Covid-19 / China fleshes out ‘optimized’ Covid-19 response.

  • Pension / China’s personal pension system nears launch as insurers’ rules finalized.

PMI Consolidation Behind Contractions

By Phil Rush

  • Differential surprises in the Nov-22 PMI surveys still reinforced the global trend towards falling activity. The US drop crystallised the convergence risk we flagged last month.
  • Levels are consistent with broad Q4 activity declines, which would confirm a technical recession in the UK. Unemployment lags but is showing some signs of deterioration.
  • Although there is arguably enough recessionary evidence for tightening to slow slightly in December, unemployment will need to have definitively turned for hikes to end.

When Recession, Sir?

By The Macro Compass

  • As my mentor used to say, any market practicioner can make headlines by screaming something wildly out-of-consensus but conveniently leaving the details of his forecast out of the equation.
  • How many times have you heard that ‘‘the US Dollar will fall apart’’ or that ‘‘the real estate bubble will burst’’ over the last 10-20 years, yet without a clear time horizon for this call to play out?
  • If only you got 1 USD (pun intended) for every time you heard something like this, you’ll be rich by now.

💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma

Sign Up for Free

The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network

  • ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
  • ✓ Personalised Alerts
  • ✓ Custom Watchlists
  • ✓ Company Data and News
  • ✓ Events & Webinars