In today’s briefing:
- Global FX: Fed, not trade, is weighing on the dollar
- The Week Ahead – Risk Sentiment Intact, For Now
- US Rates – Everybody knows this is nowhere
- What Is NPS Buying and Selling in the Korean Stock Market in 2025 So Far?
- Here Are My Top Macro Ideas
- Higher Rubber Prices Continue To Eat Into Profits Of Indian Tire Majors
- U.S. Oil & Gas Rig Count Climbs for Fourth Week, Hits Highest Since June
- US-Dollar Reversal Incoming?
- The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma – Grab Holdings, XL Axiata, and SCBX in Bloom
- Switzerland Economy – February 7, 2025

Global FX: Fed, not trade, is weighing on the dollar
- European peace optimism driving continental asset prices, especially equities, while Chinese tech stocks sizzle hot in Asia
- US real yields impacting global risky asset markets, with Fed’s dovish reaction function leading to plummeting real yields
- Dollar likely to stay soggy in short term until potential FOMC hawkishness or tariff-related events reignite Trump trades and boost dollar bullishness, while yen strength may not be sustainable due to BOJ policy and yield spread factors.
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The Week Ahead – Risk Sentiment Intact, For Now
- Peace hopes are higher and tariff fears have subsided for now
- China hosting summit with tech entrepreneurs could boost economy
- Markets becoming complacent over Trump’s policies, uncertainty remains on future developments
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US Rates – Everybody knows this is nowhere
- Fed is unlikely to cut rates in the near term, with a majority of participants pointing to a still restrictive policy stance
- Front end treasury yields are anchored by Fed’s current stance, leading to low range volatility and ongoing support for the treasury market
- Discussion on balance sheet policy suggests QT may end earlier than expected, with reinvestment of MBS proceeds likely to be in T bills, potentially impacting term premium and yield curve dynamics
This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.
What Is NPS Buying and Selling in the Korean Stock Market in 2025 So Far?
- KOSPI and KOSDAQ are up 10.2% and 14%, respectively YTD, outperforming S&P 500 is up 2.2% in the same period. so far.
- One of the big drivers of higher share prices of Korean stock market this year has been the strong net buying by the NPS.
- Some of the major stocks that have been net purchased by the NPS so far this year include Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix, LG Energy Solution, Hyundai E&C, and Samsung Biologics.
Here Are My Top Macro Ideas
- The first 5 weeks of the year have seen international equities outperforming the S&P 500: European and Chinese stocks have rallied harder than US stock indexes, and certain emerging markets like Chile or Poland are doing even better.
- My main thesis for the first half of the year remains to be positioned with an ‘’International Risk Parity’’ portfolio: long US bonds, and long stocks around the world.
The chart above shows that the US growth exceptionalism might be over. The Aggregate Income Growth series is a great proxy for nominal growth in real time: it includes private sector job creation, workweek hours, and wage growth – effectively reflecting the growth rate of nominal income US workers are bringing home.
Higher Rubber Prices Continue To Eat Into Profits Of Indian Tire Majors
- Apollo posts better profits than leader MRF in Q3 FY 2025
- JK Tyres faces the worst fall of 75% in net profit
- Raw material prices look flattish in Q4 and demand robust\
U.S. Oil & Gas Rig Count Climbs for Fourth Week, Hits Highest Since June
- U.S. oil and gas rig count rose by four for the week ending 21/Feb, marking the fourth straight weekly gain and bringing the total to 592—the highest since June.
- For the week ending 14/Feb, U.S. oil production held steady at 13.49 million bpd, showing little change from the previous week.
- The number of U.S. oil rigs rose by 7 to 488, while gas rigs fell by 2 to 99. The rig count in the Permian basin remained unchanged at 304.
US-Dollar Reversal Incoming?
- US-Dollar Reversal Incoming? The signs become more that the USD is topping out. This is the result of our latest currency-assessment.
- Particular interesting could be setups in AUDUSD as well as CADUSD – two currency pairs that have been hit the hardest by the strong USD-cycle over the last months.
- Both pairs trade at multi-year support and are heavily oversold across all metrics.
The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma – Grab Holdings, XL Axiata, and SCBX in Bloom
- The past week saw insights on Grab Holdings (GRAB US), XL Axiata (EXCL IJ), Siam Commercial Bank (SCB TB), Delta Electronics Thailand (DELTA TB) and Minor International (MINT TB).
- There was also a macro insight on Indonesia and sector insights on Indonesian Banks and rubber, as well as a company visit note on Boustead Holdings (BOUS MK).
- The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma is filled with an eclectic mix of differentiated substantive, and actionable insights, macro and equity bottom, from across Southeast Asia.
Switzerland Economy – February 7, 2025
- Switzerland’s economy is projected to show moderate growth in 2024, 2025 and 2026, with real GDP growth rates of 1.34%, 1.34%, and 1.80% respectively, an improvement compared to 2023’s slow growth of 0.75%, according to the IMF.
- In addition, Real GDP per Capita is expected to increase from CHF 87,577.63 in 2022 to CHF 89,415.98 by 2026.
- Total investments are projected to stay steady at around 24%-25% of GDP, a small decrease from 26.41% in 2021.