In today’s briefing:
- Global Metals & Mining Playbook – July 2025
- Gap Trade Opportunities in Korean Prefs Vs Common Share Pairs in 3Q 2025
- ECB Still Squeezed By Unemployment
- Steel Trade: India’s BIS Mandate Spurs Import Shock Amid Rising Global Protectionism
- CX Daily: How Labubu Proved Pop Mart Right
- Mid-Year Themes Review – Part II
- Chinese Tire Giants Accelerate Global Expansion Amid Trade Barriers
- Actinver Research – Macro Daily: Inflation (2h-Mar)
- Actinver Research – Macro Daily: Inflation Forecast: 1h-Mar
- Actinver Research – Macro Daily: Banxico Minutes
Global Metals & Mining Playbook – July 2025
- Commodity trends remain bifurcated: gold, copper, and uranium are surging, while iron ore, and coal struggle under oversupply and weak demand.
- Top picks: Zijin Mining Group (601899 CH)Shandong Gold Mining (1787 HK)JSW Steel Ltd (JSTL IN), Lloyds Metals & Energy (LYDM IN) , Paladin Energy (PDN AU)
- Top shorts: Hindalco Industries (HNDL IN) , Nippon Steel Corporation (5401 JP)Coal India Ltd (COAL IN)Tata Steel Ltd (TATA IN)
Gap Trade Opportunities in Korean Prefs Vs Common Share Pairs in 3Q 2025
- In this insight, we discuss numerous gap trade opportunities involving Korean preferred and common shares in 3Q 2025.
- In particular, five pairs of common and preferred stocks have experienced more than 20% widening of their share prices in the past six months.
- These companies (Doosan Corp, Mirae Asset Securities, KIS Holdings, Daishin Securities, and LG Chem) are more likely to revert to closing their gaps in the coming weeks.
ECB Still Squeezed By Unemployment
- EA unemployment’s rise to 6.3% matched the ECB forecast underlying recent hawkish guidance and narrowly relied on Italy, which offset a broad tightening elsewhere.
- Unemployment is still broadly lower than a year ago and pre-pandemic. That will not help a disinflationary move along the Phillips Curve, let alone shift it lower.
- Without a disinflationary surprise, the ECB should not be shocked into a rate cut as it describes the prevailing setting as well-positioned. We still see no more ECB cuts.
Steel Trade: India’s BIS Mandate Spurs Import Shock Amid Rising Global Protectionism
- Recent Impact: India’s BIS mandate has disrupted steel imports overnight, stranding shipments and pressuring MSMEs.
- Pricing: While prices have remained broadly stable so far, rising input tightness and seasonal factors suggest upward pressure is likely ahead.
- Global Trends: Around 25–35% of global steel trade is now under protectionist measures, reflecting a broader shift toward regionalization and defensive trade policies.
CX Daily: How Labubu Proved Pop Mart Right
- Pop Mart / In Depth: How Labubu proved Pop Mart right: A new line of collectibles featuring Labubu sold out within seconds of its online launch on June 12
- IPOs /: Chinese companies rush to list amid stable markets
- PMI /: China manufacturing expands despite muted foreign demand, Caixin PMI shows
Mid-Year Themes Review – Part II
- How did our major investment themes do so far in 2025?
- Review of the performance of the major markets and asset classes we focus on
- We revisit our outlook for each of those asset classes for H2 25
Chinese Tire Giants Accelerate Global Expansion Amid Trade Barriers
- Linglong Tire’s new plants in Brazil, Kenya and Anhui in China
- Yongsheng Rubber to take advantage of Morocco’s FTA with West
- CNTR’s car tire facility to come up at Alexandria in Egypt
Actinver Research – Macro Daily: Inflation (2h-Mar)
- Inflation during the second half of March was 0.21% biweekly (bw), driven by the increase in agricultural products. On an annual basis, inflation now stands at 3.93%.
- Inflation came in line with market expectations (0.21% bw) and below our forecast of 0.30% bw.
- The forecast error is explained by larger-than-expected increases in tomato prices and smaller-than-anticipated declines in onion, chicken, and egg prices.
Actinver Research – Macro Daily: Inflation Forecast: 1h-Mar
- We expect inflation for the first fortnight of March to be 0.17% bw, below the historical average, due to lower energy prices.
- Inflation for this period typically stands at 0.29% bw. Our lower forecast is explained by an estimated decline of -0.76% bw in energy prices (historical average of +0.37% bw).
- According to our price monitoring, low octane gasoline would have decreased by -1.5% bw.
Actinver Research – Macro Daily: Banxico Minutes
- The minutes suggest that the Banxico Governing Board would be willing to reduce its policy rate by 50 bps in May.
- However, some voices are beginning to point out that the market may be pricing in more rate cuts than what could ultimately materialize.
- According to the minutes, three members of the Board consider that the current economic slowdown, combined with the absence of significant inflationary effects stemming from trade-related factors, would allow the continuation of 50-basis-point rate cuts in the upcoming meeting on May 15.
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