In today’s briefing:
- Gold’s Next Leg Up And Why It Matters
- What the Baltimore Bride Collapse Means for Commodities
- March Themes and Thematic Portfolio Review
- Steno Signals #93 – Material Stealth QT Upcoming During a War Economy
- The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma – Ultrajaya’s Recovery, MAPI’s Regional, and Semen Indonesia.
Gold’s Next Leg Up And Why It Matters
- Gold price is a reflection of underlying global stress in currency markets
- Gold price is a reflection of actual not reported real rates of interest
- Gold price is a reflection of global increased demand from central banks and consumers
What the Baltimore Bride Collapse Means for Commodities
- Goldman also highlights that cyclical risks from the business cycle are fading.
- An upswing in the global industrial cycle typically leads to broad metals upside over the next 12 months the investment bank added.
- According to data from PIERS, a trade flow analytics tool within S&P Global, Baltimore port held just 4% share of the total trade volumes on the East Coast compared with other major regional ports like New York, with a nearly 38% share according to S&P Global.
March Themes and Thematic Portfolio Review
- A monthly review at how the markets and our themes are currently performing
- Analysing what went wrong and what went right in stocks and sectors
- Highlighting positions added or removed from the thematic investment portfolio
Steno Signals #93 – Material Stealth QT Upcoming During a War Economy
- Happy Easter and welcome to our flagship editorial! The tide is turning on USD liquidity and the four most recent bills auctions have seen net negative issuance, which is a harbinger for the trend into April, which is typically strongly net issuance negative due to tax seasonality (see chart 1).
- Only during the first lockdown in 2020, did the net amount of outstanding bills increase through this period, which makes for a solid hit ratio in predicting (much) weaker USD liquidity in Q2 this year.
- We wrote on New Years eve of 2023 that “USD liquidity is likely going to increase massively in Q1 due to a series of technicalities surrounding the BTFP, ON RRP and TGA facilities, which makes us set for a material rally (or a blow off top) in Q1.”, which I guess was as precise as it could be.
The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma – Ultrajaya’s Recovery, MAPI’s Regional, and Semen Indonesia.
- The past week saw insights on Ultrajaya Milk (ULTJ IJ), Mitra Adiperkasa (MAPI IJ), PT Nippon Indosari Corpindo (ROTI IJ), Bukalapak.com (BUKA IJ), and Semen Indonesia (SMGR IJ).
- There were also insights on Bank Mandiri (BMRI IJ), Siloam International Hospitals (SILO IJ), Kawasan Industri Jababeka (KIJA IJ), Multi Bintang Indonesia, and Far East Hospitality Trust (FEHT SP)
- The Week That Was in ASEAN@Smartkarma is filled with an eclectic mix of differentiated, substantive, and actionable insights, macro and equity bottom-up, from across Southeast Asia.
💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma
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