Daily Brief Macro: HEW: Back To Business and more

• The US government reopened after some of those seeking to expand the state inevitably broke ranks to reverse some shrinkage, although the fight could resume in January.
• UK activity data were broadly disappointing as unemployment rose and GDP fell at the end of Q3, after downwards revisions helped realign with the residual seasonality.
• Next week’s UK inflation data will be more insightful for the BoE’s hawks and us. The belated release of US macro data will probably be more substantive market news.

• Chinese purchases of US agricultural products are expected to increase gradually but may take time due to seasonality and price competitiveness
• US farmers may see more optimism in the 2026-2027 season as trade discussions with China improve and market participation increases
• The complex nature of US-China trade relations and the continued volatility in the agricultural markets make for a clouded outlook, but there is potential for growth and market shifts in the near future.

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• The U.S. Administration is reducing tariffs previously imposed on LATAM in an effort to lower inflation and reverse plunging consumer confidence.
• President Trump announced tariff exemptions for agricultural imports from certain Latin American countries in an admission that the US will not strive to be self-sufficient in all agricultural products.
• U.S. stock market volatility is increasing even though many of the Administration’s previously announced tariffs have been reduced or eliminated, an ominous signal for investors.

• Total earnings in nine months of 2025 surge by 38% to US$549 million  
• Domestic consumption surges 102% year-on-year to 86,539 tons  
• New highly productive clones set to hit plantations, boosting sector  

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