In today’s briefing:
- HEW: Doves Disappointed By Patience
- [ETP 2025/19] WTI Wavers on Trade Talk Hopes, Henry Hub Pressured by Uncertain Demand Outlook
- The Art of the Trade War: US BEGS AND CHINA RELENTS
- With Trade War Taking Its Toll, Asia Must Brace for Slower Growth
- Cambodian Rubber Production Struggles To Keep Pace With Tire Exports
- CX Daily: The Changing Landscape of Foreign Law Firms in China
HEW: Doves Disappointed By Patience
- The BoE and Fed decisions disappointed dovish hopes for action by sensibly waiting to see some signs that easing is appropriate. Caution reduces the risk of a policy mistake.
- Inflation in the US, plus unemployment and GDP in the UK, are the scheduled economic highlights for us next week. The UK data may prove more resilient than feared again.
- An absence of bad news can allow the good vibes to keep flowing from recent resilient data and trade policy progress, but investors seeking to sleep easy may wish to hedge.
[ETP 2025/19] WTI Wavers on Trade Talk Hopes, Henry Hub Pressured by Uncertain Demand Outlook
- For the week ending 02/May, U.S. crude inventories fell by 2m barrels (vs. expectations of a 1.7m barrel fall). Gasoline stockpiles unexpectedly rose; distillate inventories fell less than anticipated.
- The EIA reported a 104 Bcf storage build, slightly exceeding the 103 Bcf forecast. Storage levels are 1.4% above the five-year average.
- Analysts cut price targets on Exxon, Chevron, Shell, Halliburton, and Schlumberger. Occidental exceeded Q1 EPS estimates but narrowly missed revenue forecasts.
The Art of the Trade War: US BEGS AND CHINA RELENTS
- After weeks of imploring China to hold talks over the trade war the US started, Beijing finally agreed to meet.
- US negotiators are anxious to improve sentiment in financial markets and have already announced that they intend to lower tariffs on China before negotiations even start!
- US is trying to accomplish the impossible by pursuing its trade war and simultaneously trying to maintain “US Exceptionalism”. Foreigners have already begun to shun US assets.
With Trade War Taking Its Toll, Asia Must Brace for Slower Growth
- A month after the US’s “Liberation Day” tariff announcement, cracks in the US economy are emerging: deteriorating consumer and business sentiment, nascent signs of financial stresses, and large inventory buildups.
- China will also suffer a slowdown after the frontloading of its exports fade. Policy will focus on preserving jobs and production, rather than demand stimulus.
- April PMI readings, commodity prices, and freight-related data point to a generalized global growth slowdown. Record-highs in economic policy uncertainty make things worse.
Cambodian Rubber Production Struggles To Keep Pace With Tire Exports
- In Q1 2025, Cambodia exports 59,754 tons of rubber, down 13.8% YoY
- Overall rubber production in Q1 2025, 64,080 tons, down 7.9% YoY
- Trump tariff, EUDR pose challenge to Cambodian rubber and tire
CX Daily: The Changing Landscape of Foreign Law Firms in China
- Law firms / In Depth: The changing landscape of foreign law firms in China
- Education /: Education ministry boosts scrutiny of dodgy overseas degrees
- Bonds /China accelerates sci-tech bond plan to fuel innovation, aiming for $40 billion in issuance
💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma
Sign Up for Free
The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network
- ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
- ✓ Personalised Alerts
- ✓ Custom Watchlists
- ✓ Company Data and News
- ✓ Events & Webinars
