In today’s briefing:
- HEW: Good News From Less News
- EA: April’s Awkward Core Rebound
- The Month Ahead: Key Events in May 2025
- [IO Technicals Weekly 2025/18]: Bearish Momentum Strengthens
- [ETP 2025/18] WTI Extends Losses, Henry Hub Rebounds on Summer Demand Optimism
HEW: Good News From Less News
- Economic data and Trump’s declarations do not support dovish fears, with the economy showing resilience despite the initial US tariff shock and the UK stamp duty rise. EA inflation pressure remains unbroken.
- The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain steady rates next week due to lack of hard evidence for a cut. Similarly, the Bank of England is likely to continue its course with a quarterly 25bp rate cut, influenced by the strength of sterling and falling commodity prices.
- Any future rate cuts by both the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England would require more substantial evidence.
EA: April’s Awkward Core Rebound
- Resurgent services offset falling energy prices in April to deliver a surprisingly stable 2.2% rate, breaking the usual correlation between energy price moves and surprises.
- Surprises skewed positively across the Euro area, compounding the underlying signal from core inflation, which has reversed its weakness from the previous two months.
- The headline news is modest, and the composition won’t derail the ECB’s June cut, but it demonstrates the ongoing inflation problem that should truncate the easing cycle.
The Month Ahead: Key Events in May 2025
- Central Bank Rate Decisions, including from the Bank of Japan, the Fed, the Reserve Bank of Australia, and the Bank of Korea.
- Elections: Australia is holding national elections on 3 May while South Korea has presidential elections in early June.
- Various exchange holidays in several countries at the beginning of the month, and in the last week of May.
[IO Technicals Weekly 2025/18]: Bearish Momentum Strengthens
- SGX Iron Ore Futures fell 4.3% WoW to $95.85/ton, closing just above S2 support as bearish momentum strengthened
- Prices are trading below all key moving averages, with a recent death cross and RSI at 38.17, indicating continued downside risk
- Managed Money and Physicals turned net short, while total futures and options open interest rose 4.2% WoW, reflecting rising bearish positioning
[ETP 2025/18] WTI Extends Losses, Henry Hub Rebounds on Summer Demand Optimism
- For the week ending 25/Apr, U.S. crude inventories fell by 2.7m barrels (vs. expectations of a 0.4m barrel build). Gasoline stockpiles fell more than expected.
- Henry Hub headed for its first weekly gain in five weeks. The EIA reported a 107 Bcf storage build, below the expected 111 Bcf increase.
- BP, TotalEnergies, Shell, Exxon, and Chevron saw YoY profit declines, but Shell, Exxon, and Chevron beat EPS estimates, while TotalEnergies and BP fell short of analyst expectations.
💡 Before it’s here, it’s on Smartkarma
Sign Up for Free
The Smartkarma Preview Pass is your entry to the Independent Investment Research Network
- ✓ Unlimited Research Summaries
- ✓ Personalised Alerts
- ✓ Custom Watchlists
- ✓ Company Data and News
- ✓ Events & Webinars
