In today’s briefing:
- HEW: Put Inside The Trump Collar
- [IO Technicals Weekly 2025/17] Bullish Momentum Builds
- The Diverging Impact of Falling Crude Prices on Various Oil Producing Regions
- Indian Rubber Prices Shrugging Off Negative Trump Tariff Impact
- Oilfield Services Industry to Bear the Brunt of Falling Oil Prices
- “Trying To Crash The Market On Purpose”: How To Invest In A Trump Era
- Actinver Research
HEW: Put Inside The Trump Collar
- The US policy caused market volatility over Easter, creating a ‘Trump Collar’ to pricing, but the global economy remains unaffected by the attacks and uncertainty.
- The upcoming week will see a heavy release of data, providing insights into current conditions.
- Key data highlights include US payrolls, the ISMs, and Euro inflation for April, while Q1 EA and US GDP are likely to be discounted by the market as outdated information.
[IO Technicals Weekly 2025/17] Bullish Momentum Builds
- SGX IO Futures gained $2.69/ton this week, closing at $100.24/ton on April 23, breaking above the R1 level of $99.00/ton.
- Managed Money flipped to net short while Physicals turned net long, signaling a major positioning shift
- MACD divergence and RSI at 51.09 reflect building bullish momentum despite prices trading below long-term moving averages.
The Diverging Impact of Falling Crude Prices on Various Oil Producing Regions
- U.S. oil producers need prices between USD 61-70 per barrel to maintain profitability. With prices around USD 60 per barrel, drilling activity is likely to decrease.
- Rising tariffs and trade uncertainty are increasing oilfield equipment costs and threatening production growth in the United States.
- While Saudi Arabia faces fiscal pressures and OPEC supply constraints, Petrobras benefits from low breakeven costs, no OPEC restrictions, and strong investment.
Indian Rubber Prices Shrugging Off Negative Trump Tariff Impact
- RSS-4 prices near stable around INR 198/kg for past ten days
- Kerala farmers engaged in rainguarding in right earnest
- RRII devises process for extracting top-quality rubber from skim latex
Oilfield Services Industry to Bear the Brunt of Falling Oil Prices
- Crude prices plunged to multi-year lows amid rising global supply and trade tensions, stoking demand fears and slowing U.S. shale activity.
- Oilfield services firms are underperforming peers as falling rig counts and steel tariffs drive up costs and erode margins.
- With fixed-cost-heavy models and fewer upstream clients, the sector faces amplified downside risks and limited pricing power in the near term.
“Trying To Crash The Market On Purpose”: How To Invest In A Trump Era
- “Trump is trying to crash the market on purpose.” When I first heard this theory a few weeks ago, I quickly dismissed it as absurd.
- But just two days after “Liberation Day” Trump himself reposted a video claiming that he was intentionally driving the market lower.
- That made me take a second look (and this time, with a more open mind). Hhere’s what it said – plus, my take on whether its claims hold water.
Actinver Research
- Consolidated sales of P$45.5bn were 10.4% higher YoY, and above our estimates and consensus.
- This was driven by better-than-expected SSS in Liverpool, sales in Suburbia, and other businesses (financial and real estate), which grew above retail sales.
- Liverpool and Suburbia posted SSS growth of 7.9% and 7.3%, respectively, ahead of our estimates and consensus.
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