Daily Brief Macro: KOSPI CRASHING AGAIN: S.O.S. – Save Our Seouls !! and more

• The KOSPI is rolling over again, with foreign selling accelerating and technical indicators weakening.  Rising bond yields and massive retail losses from leveraged ETFs are adding to selling pressure.
• The dominant technical picture is bearish, with the index in a confirmed downtrend across all major timeframes.  Momentum and trend indicators, Bollinger Bands, and Fibonacci levels are breaking down simultaneously.
• The weight of evidence strongly supports the view that, for institutional allocators with risk management constraints, Korea is materially less investable today than at any point in the past decade.

Highlights

• Rubber exports accelerate to 9.24% growth in August, lifting January-August earnings 5.51%.

• Hard-rubber product exports surged 68.26% in August, while glove exports rose 10.71%.

• EUDR compliance and weaker vehicle registrations pose challenges despite resilient rubber-product exports.

• WTI rose 0.81% for the W/E 09/Oct as Hormuz risks and Hurricane Isaias offset supply relief; rising skew and fund long liquidation point to a short-lived supply-risk premium.
• Energy equities outpaced flat crude, with XLE and XOP rallying and AUM flowing into traditional energy ETFs, while clean-energy ICLN lagged.
• Frontline’s Q3 bookings suggest estimates are beatable after a record Q2, but Middle East de-escalation and new vessel supply threaten tanker rates.

• Cover Story: China’s AI Battle Moves From Chatbots to Agents Upload a set of spreadsheets to Tencent’s WorkBuddy and an agent can analyze the data and build an interactive dashboard.
• Ask ByteDance’s Doubao Work to go through product comments, and it can identify what buyers like, recommend products to promote, and prepare advertising images and copy in several languages.
• China’s Bank Resolution Regime Rated ‘Materially Non-Compliant’ by Global Watchdog The Chinese mainland’s bank resolution regime was rated “materially non-compliant” by the Financial Stability Board (FSB), which cited limited funding capacity and insufficient operational readiness for managing the failure of systemically important lenders.

• Brent crude oil futures were slightly lower on Tuesday as investors eyed the prospect of additional Russian diesel that would provide some relief to tight fuel markets.
• Front-month Dec26 ICE  Brent futures were 0.6% lower at  $106.06/b (2103 BST), whereas Nov26 NYMEX  WTI was at $94.65/b , up 1% versus Monday’s settle.
• However, both benchmarks rebounded from earlier lows as Iran stepped up attacks on tankers, with at least four more since Sunday evening.

• As we anticipated, NYMEX USLD cracks have expanded once again, at least partly catalyzed by Houthi and Saudi strikes against refining and other energy assets.   
• As we anticipated, NYMEX USLD cracks have expanded once again, at least partly catalyzed by Houthi and Saudi strikes against refining and other energy assets.   
• As previously discussed, any major escalation could include a Houthi attack on Abqaiq, Saudi Aramco’s critical crude oil processing and desulphurization facility.

• Global air freight rates edged a little lower last week according to the latest data from TAC Index, the leading price reporting agency on air freight markets and calculating agent for the Baltic Air Freight indices.
• The global Baltic Air Freight Index (BAI00) eased lower by -2.1% over seven days to October 12, leaving it still ahead by +24.3% year-on-year.
• A slight drop was not unusual for the Golden Week holiday period in China when factories often shut down and volumes decrease.