In today’s briefing:
- Malaysia Politics: Barisan Bags Second Landslide in Negeri Sembilan
- SpaceX Hits the Moon…. Literally !!
- Morning Market Notes: Is Our Previously Postulated “Implausible” Scenario Now Plausible?
- 🔎The truth about the China Shock 2.0.
- Oil futures: Crude drifts as US-Iran Strait of Hormuz deal eyed
- Quick Note Following NBG (National Bank of Greece) Conference Call for the Second Quarter Q2 2026
Malaysia Politics: Barisan Bags Second Landslide in Negeri Sembilan
- Barisan Nasional (BN), allied tactically with Perikatan Nasional (PN), won 25 of Negeri Sembilan’s 36 seats, driven by consolidation of the Malay vote and weakening support for Pakatan Harapan (PH).
- Despite successful cooperation in Negeri Sembilan and Johor, a comprehensive nationwide BN–PN pact remains unlikely: competition between UMNO and PAS for Malay-majority constituencies remains fundamentally zero-sum.
- The defeat increases pressure on PH and Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim to delay the general election, pursue a more electorally generous budget and rebuild party machinery.
SpaceX Hits the Moon…. Literally !!
- SpaceX (SPCX US) released its maiden earnings announcement, and the market is unimpressed. Although there were some estimate beats, the focus remains on the enormous capex and cash-draining AI business.
- The company is due to release large tranches of shares to the market over the next few months, beginning on August 6th, posing a major risk to the share price.
- SpaceX debt, although rated Investment Grade, trades like junk in the market, resulting in substantial losses for its investors since the IPO in June.
Morning Market Notes: Is Our Previously Postulated “Implausible” Scenario Now Plausible?
- Allegedly “progress has been made” in negotiations between Iran and Oman regarding “management” of the Strait of Hormuz, with apparently the U.S. “involved” in some manner.
- If so, our previously discussed scenario could be the end game: Iran claims a “win” over the Strait as long as the U.S. claims a “win” over the nuclear issue.
- We shall see, but with great respect to the negotiating efforts, as previously discussed, we will believe it when we see it.
🔎The truth about the China Shock 2.0.
- TLDR Summary China’s exports are booming once again. And this time they are not just producing cheap junk.
- They are innovating, taking over existing industries and shaping future ones.
- The media is popularizing this as the China Shock 2.0 . This time it isn’t just hurting Western wage earners.
Oil futures: Crude drifts as US-Iran Strait of Hormuz deal eyed
- Crude futures were floundering at lower levels Wednesday amid growing optimism that a US-Iran deal was drawing closer, allowing oil to start flowing again from the region.
- Oct26 ICE Brent futures were 0.2% higher at $79.54/b (2034 BST), while Sep26 NYMEX WTI was at $75.21/b , down 0.7% versus Tuesday’s settle.
- US President Donald Trump told Fox News that “very good discussions” were underway with Iran, adding that the Strait of Hormuz would be “soon” open for commercial shipping.
Quick Note Following NBG (National Bank of Greece) Conference Call for the Second Quarter Q2 2026
- The CEO presented an overview of the second quarter against a Greek economy still running ahead of February’s base case scenario, helped by an 18-year low in unemployment and the RRF funds yet to be deployed.
- H1 profit after tax of €661mn before one-offs produced a return on tangible equity of 15.5% and took the FY 2026 target above 15%.
- NII accelerated and the margin turned off its Q1 low, lifting full-year NII guidance to mid-single-digit growth, with corporate lending driving credit expansion.
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