In today’s briefing:
- Technically Speaking Breakouts & Breakdowns – HONG KONG (November 10)
- Oil: Wisdom of (Mohammed bin) Salman
- Copper Finding Its Pulse in the Fog Of (Hitherto) Weak Demand
- Actinver Research – Macro Daily: Inflation 2h Oct – lower pressures leave room for Banxico
- India Tightens Trade Defences Across Rubber Spectrum
- Oil futures: Brent sinks 4% as glut fears offset Russia sanctions
Technically Speaking Breakouts & Breakdowns – HONG KONG (November 10)
- The Hong Kong market is consolidating with rotational buying into value and high dividend factor investments. Mainland buying has slowed and diversified away from tech into low volatility names.
- After leading the market for nine months, growth and momentum factors turned down sharply in October. The energy sector is showing increased strength and momentum, while tech and healthcare lag.
- Xinyi Solar Holdings (968 HK) had a technical breakout after forming a Golden Cross with a rebound off its 50 day-moving-average. The share price is benefiting from anti-involution policies.
Oil: Wisdom of (Mohammed bin) Salman
- Most analysis of Opec+’s 2 November decision is as overly simplistic as the cartel’s public justifications. Calling an unwinding ‘time out’ in 2026Q1 is by no means unwise.
- Most notably — and despite continuing economic and political uncertainty — it is very likely that the market will be awash with oil in any case for some months to come.
- In other words, the cartel may already have done enough to achieve its primary objective, i.e. clawing back market share at the expense of US shale producers.
Copper Finding Its Pulse in the Fog Of (Hitherto) Weak Demand
- Global copper demand is stabilising after months of weakness, even as inventories thin out. The ICSG now expects a 150,000-ton deficit in 2026, reversing its earlier forecast of a surplus.
- A softer dollar and expectations of continued Fed easing are improving the backdrop for commodities. The copper–gold ratio sits near 30-year lows, signalling room for mean reversion.
- The bullish setup hinges on growth holding up and exceeding the rate of growth of China. Electrification to be the biggest driver.
Actinver Research – Macro Daily: Inflation 2h Oct – lower pressures leave room for Banxico
- In the second half of October, inflation stood at 0.14% bw, reflecting lower pressures on agricultural products.
- As a result, headline inflation declined to 3.50% YoY, leaving room for Banco de México to deliver another rate cut at its December meeting.
- Typically, inflation for this period averages 0.14% bw.
India Tightens Trade Defences Across Rubber Spectrum
- ADD Probe into Rubber Glove Imports from Malaysia, Thailand
- Finance Ministry imposes new duty on insoluble sulphur
- DGTR Recommends Continuation of Duties on NBR Imports
Oil futures: Brent sinks 4% as glut fears offset Russia sanctions
- Crude oil futures were sliding lower Wednesday with benchmarks failing to hold the early-week gains as traders eyed the impact of Russian sanctions against the supply glut.
- Front-month Jan25 ICE Brent futures were trading at $62.63/b (2151 GMT) versus Tuesday’s settle of $65.15/b, while Dec25 NYMEX WTI was at $58.40/b against a previous close of $61.04/b.
- Sentiment had improved at the start of the week with the US government shutdown set to end, while tighter sanctions on Russia have started to disrupt supplies.
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