Daily Brief Macro: The Gold–Platinum Ratio at a Turning Point: Late-Cycle Signals and Precious Metals Risk Into 2026 and more

• Precious metals have posted high-double-digit YTD gains but extreme RSI readings across the precious metals complex resemble prior late-cycle exhaustion phases.
• Prior silver (2011) and platinum (2008) peaks saw weekly RSI above ~88–91, conditions that historically preceded blow-off tops and sharply negative forward returns.
• With long-only demand exhausted, mean reversion in Gold–Platinum and Gold–Silver ratios offers cleaner late-cycle exposure than outright metals.

• The arrival of the second Trump administration has triggered a wave of commentary justifying lower exposure to US financial markets. Dislike of US trade policy is the main driving force.
• The case for greater exposure to Europe is undermined by significant economic stagnation and deindustrialisation in Germany, thereby raising questions about the future economic and financial stability in the region.
• Gold is the big winner in 2025 due to portfolio diversification, driven by geopolitical tensions and US dollar weakness. The consensus global economic outlook for 2026 suggests  range-bound gold prices.

• Gold has staged a convincing relative breakout. In the last cycle, the turn was accompanied by similar turns in value/growth, size and U.S./international leadership. This time, leadership rotation hasn’t happened.
• We attribute this to the “debasement trade” will carry on and hard assets will continue to dominate in the next multi-year market cycle.
• This time is different. Investors shouldn’t depend on a rotation from growth to value, large cap to small cap, and U.S. to non-U.S. equities in the near future.

• Crude oil futures opened the week higher amid concerns over Venezuelan supplies after the US seized a second tanker on Saturday and was said to be in pursuit of a third.
• Front-month Feb26 ICE Brent  futures were trading at  $62.11/b (2020 GMT) versus Friday’s settle of $60.47/b, while Feb26 NYMEX WTI  was at  $58.03/b against a previous close of $56.52/b.
• Benchmarks extended the firmer tone seen at the back end of last week after a Panamanian-flagged VLCC, named as Centuries, was intercepted by the US Coast Guard, having earlier this month seized the Skipper.

• In Depth: China Unveils More Nuanced Economic Plan for 2026
• At the conclusion of the Central Economic Work Conference in December, China’s ruling Communist Party unveiled a blueprint for 2026 that signals deep-seated structural problems, from industrial overcapacity to persistent deflationary pressures.
• By adding “promoting quality and efficiency” to its long-standing mantra of “seeking progress while maintaining stability,” Beijing is reinforcing a move away from its old playbook of debt-fueled investment to a more nuanced approach as it prepares to kick off its 15th Five-Year Plan.

• CBE likely to keep rates on hold this week.                                                                 
• Israel finally signed the gas deal with Egypt.
• Pound stable, high demand for local treasury bills.

Highlights

• October posts a sharp 20% YoY fall in export volume

• China dominates yet declines; secondary markets turn volatile

• Vietnam exports 1.47 million tons of rubber in first 10 months

• The October contraction underscored how demand-side hesitation intensified in the latter part of the year. Buyers delayed purchases amid uncertain downstream tyre demand, fluctuating currency conditions, and cautious inventory strategies.