In today’s briefing:
- UK Course-Corrected CPI Stays High
- EA Inflation Predictably Near The Target
- [IO Fundamentals 2025/24] Retail Revival Vs. Real Estate Rut: Uneven China Recovery Tempers Outlook
- Tire Trade At Tipping Point After US Q1 Import Shifts
- Sweden: 25bp Rate Cut To 2% (Consensus 2%) in Jun-25
- Luxembourg Economy – June 4, 2025
- Indonesia: Policy Rate Held At 5.5% (Consensus 5.5%) in Jun-25
- CX Daily: As China Pursues Carbon Goals, Coal Heartland Faces Uphill Struggle
- Sideways Trend for BDI
UK Course-Corrected CPI Stays High
- UK inflation unsurprisingly slowed in May as a correction to vehicle excise duty knocked 0.1pp from the rate, reversing all the upside to our above-consensus April forecast.
- Services inflation aligns with the BoE’s forecast from its May forecast, where MPC members were biased towards slowing their easing. Underlying rates remain too high.
- Inflation keeps trending above the consensus, cumulating a 1pp error since rate cuts began, but aligning with our forecast from 1yr and 2yrs ago. We remain hawkish.
EA Inflation Predictably Near The Target
- Disinflationary news from May’s flash inflation release was confirmed in the final print, although a rebound in some underlying inflation measures damped the initial signal.
- Resurgent oil prices could rapidly reverse the dovish space expanded by past falls. Our forecast bumps around the target through 2026 and 2027, settling at 2%.
- Other forecasts are a little lower and only suffer a slight bias to be exceeded. The ECB can remain reassured by an outlook close to 2% without cuts, and not deliver any more.
[IO Fundamentals 2025/24] Retail Revival Vs. Real Estate Rut: Uneven China Recovery Tempers Outlook
- China’s May retail sales surged 6.4% YoY, driven by holiday spending and trade-in programs, though fading property prices may dampen future consumer sentiment.
- China’s new home prices fell 3.5% YoY in May, marking a 23-month decline streak, though policy support shows signs of easing the prolonged property downturn.
- Iron ore port inventories rose in mid-June as weaker steel margins cut pig iron output, reducing pick-up volumes and softening near-term demand despite steady arrivals.
Tire Trade At Tipping Point After US Q1 Import Shifts
- Truck tire imports from Thailand fell 41% YoY in Jan-Feb 2025
- Q1 2025 tire imports rise 3–4% year-on-year
- Vietnam, Japan, Cambodia gain as China, Thailand falter
Sweden: 25bp Rate Cut To 2% (Consensus 2%) in Jun-25
- The Riksbank cut its policy rate by 25 basis points to 2%, in line with consensus expectations, citing weaker economic growth and a subdued inflation outlook.
- The decision reflects persistent uncertainty in both domestic demand and the global environment, with the central bank signalling a non-trivial probability of further easing should inflation remain below target and recovery falter.
- Future policy decisions will be highly data-dependent, with particular attention to inflation dynamics, labour market conditions, and the impact of ongoing geopolitical and trade-related risks.
This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.
Luxembourg Economy – June 4, 2025
- IMF’s projections regarding Luxembourg’s Economy suggest growth rates for the Real GDP of 1.03%, 1.58% and 2.21% in the years 2024-2026, rebounding from the slight contraction of 0.69% in 2023.
- In contrast, the Real GDP per Capita is expected to decline and reach approximately 94 thousand Euros in the next years, a noticeable decline from the 100 thousand GDP per Capita recorded in 2021.
- Investments are expected to stay relatively stable as a percentage of the GDP, around 14-15%.
Indonesia: Policy Rate Held At 5.5% (Consensus 5.5%) in Jun-25
- Bank Indonesia maintained the BI-Rate at 5.50% in June 2025, in line with consensus expectations, citing stable inflation and a resilient rupiah as key factors.
- The decision reflects a cautious approach amid persistent global uncertainties, with BI emphasising the need to preserve macroeconomic stability while supporting growth through accommodative macroprudential and payment system policies.
- The interest rate outlook remains data-dependent, with the central bank signalling potential for further easing if inflation and currency stability persist, but maintaining a prudent stance given external risks and the need to attract foreign capital.
This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.
CX Daily: As China Pursues Carbon Goals, Coal Heartland Faces Uphill Struggle
- Coal / In Depth: As China pursues carbon goals, coal heartland faces uphill struggle
- Data /Analysis: Why China faces growth slowdown despite strong consumption
- Ant /: Ant International’s first sustainability report reveals extent of global expansion and fuels IPO speculation
Sideways Trend for BDI
- The Baltic Dry Index (BDI)* settled at around ~1,340.00 points (USD) on May 23rd – 26th, 2025 versus ~1,424.00 points (USD) on March 11th, 2025, which was the release date of our previous blog and vis-à-vis ~1,354.00 points (USD) in the beginning of December 2024.
- During the year 2024, BDI traded within the broader range of 1,000 – 2,500 with continuous notable swings along a relatively downward trend line.
- Our previous blog, in March 2025 with the Index standing at ~1,424.00, was reading as follows: “… In the past 3 months, the BDI traded mostly along the lower half, i.e. 1,000-1,500, of the historic average trading range of 1,000-2,000 amid increasing volatility.
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