In today’s briefing:
- UK: Resilient Return of the LFS
- CX Daily: The Gray Market Behind a Cross-Border Investing Boom
- Priced for a Japan That Has Not Existed Since 1991, Long the 30-Year JGB at 4.16%
- TAC Index Weekly Air Cargo Bulletin 14 September 2026
- Morning Market Notes: We Believe Too Much Risk Trading the Flat Price; Would Concentrate on Spreads
UK: Resilient Return of the LFS
- The ONS remembered to conduct the LFS again in July, and responses were resilient after two months of imputation. Unemployment held at 4.9%, contrary to dovish views.
- June’s high single-month rate reflects a cohort that leaves the survey in September, potentially cutting the UR by 0.1pp then. Fundamental signals remain broadly stable.
- Wage growth measures range from 2.9% to 5.1%, with outliers biased and the truth probably around 4%, which is too high to be consistent with the inflation target.
CX Daily: The Gray Market Behind a Cross-Border Investing Boom
- Cover Story: The Gray Market Behind a Cross-Border Investing Boom
- In the summer of 2026, two cross-border investment blowups rattled investors from the Chinese mainland to Hong Kong and landed on the desks of Hong Kong police investigators.
- Chinese Retail Rush for U.S. Tech Stocks Drains Fresh Offshore Quotas
Priced for a Japan That Has Not Existed Since 1991, Long the 30-Year JGB at 4.16%
- Japan’s 30-year yields 4.16%, 236 basis points over the Bank of Japan’s neutral midpoint. Part is fiscal premium; the rest is the price of a domestic bid returning at 4%
- Post-Covid inflation was supply-driven, imported through the yen, oil and food. Inflation excluding food and energy never exceeded 2.7%. Real wages are rising, consumption grows 1%: neutral, not above it.
- The buyers’ strike is ending. Life insurers sold ¥2.1 trillion of super-longs in FY2025 and are buying again; Meiji Yasuda doubled its plan; GPIF is pressed to add domestic assets.
TAC Index Weekly Air Cargo Bulletin 14 September 2026
- Global air freight rates edged up again last week according to the latest data from TAC Index, the leading price reporting agency on air freight markets and calculating agent for the Baltic Air Freight indices.
- The global Baltic Air Freight Index (BAI00) gained +0.2% over seven days to September 14, with the impact of surging crude oil and jet fuel prices in recent days yet to be reflected in rates globally – but with the index already at elevated levels of +20.2% year-on-year.
- With crude oil back over $100 per barrel and jet fuel prices now up over +100% YoY according to the latest Platts data, it seems likely rate levels will come under renewed upward pressure well before we reach traditional peak season in the coming weeks.
Morning Market Notes: We Believe Too Much Risk Trading the Flat Price; Would Concentrate on Spreads
- Oil prices surged yesterday in response to a further escalation of the Houthi-Saudi conflict, which resulted in a closure of the port of Yanbu and damage to the SANREF refinery.
- There is as of yet no indication of any attempt at diplomacy to resolve the situation, although the Houthis claim that transit through the Bab el-Mandeb is “safe.”
- In terms of trading, given the risk of either further oil price gains or this market turning on a dime via a ceasefire/diplomacy, we would continue to concentrate on spreads.
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