Daily BriefsMacro

Daily Brief Macro: UK: Spillover effects from US tariffs and more

In today’s briefing:

  • UK: Spillover effects from US tariffs
  • Trump, Tariffs, and Trade Wars
  • Europe Vs NATO & Trump – U/W Bonds
  • Bond Market Monitor:                TRUMPolined Recession
  • CX Daily: Trump Tariffs Put Global Trade System in Crisis as Countries Retaliate
  • Paetongtarn’s Parliamentary Win of Little Help to Struggling Economy
  • Macro Bite – India : Why RBI Should Cut Fast and Deep
  • Global base oils arb outlook: Week of 7 April
  • Global base oils margins outlook: Week of 7 April
  • Asia base oils supply outlook: Week of 7 April


UK: Spillover effects from US tariffs

By Phil Rush

  • The UK output destroyed by reciprocal US tariffs is only partly due to the direct impact of the new 10% rate (worth ~0.2% of GDP) and generally weaker US prospects (0.1%).
  • Global GDP growth is depressed by this policy, indirectly destroying demand for UK exports from elsewhere (0.2%), especially if countries harm themselves by retaliating.
  • An overall 0.6% GDP hit has two-sided risks and a skew lowered by likely negotiations. Fears of items dumping into the UK market are overblown excuses for protectionism.

Trump, Tariffs, and Trade Wars

By Manu Bhaskaran

  • President Trump’s radical tariff measures will usher in a new era of greater volatility, slower growth, financial stresses and geopolitical downsides.
  • The coming weeks will be marked by uncertainty as the domestic political pushback in the US interacts unpredictably with retaliation by trading partners and the economic fallout. 
  • In Asia, monetary easing can mitigate only part of the impact. Fiscal policy is needed but is constrained in most of the region, given pre-existing debt and deficits. 

Europe Vs NATO & Trump – U/W Bonds

By Sharmila Whelan

  • Bond holders should be concerned  about Europe’s fiscal position, which is less rosy than official numbers suggest,  and the looming surge in defence spending.   Stay underweight European government bonds.
  • Europe’s urgently needs to strengthen its defences. There is some catching up to do –  Europe still spends half as much as the US’s and the gap has widened.
  • Weaning itself off US arms won’t be easy or quick. Overweight US defence stocks.

Bond Market Monitor:                TRUMPolined Recession

By Warut Promboon

  • President Trump’s announcement of tariffs stunned the market and warrants our pessimism on the US economy.
  • One of the worst policy blunders in our lifetime should help put the US into a recession this year
  • We recommend a long position in short-rated and variable rate bonds as well as precious metals such as gold.

CX Daily: Trump Tariffs Put Global Trade System in Crisis as Countries Retaliate

By Caixin Global

  • Tariffs / Cover Story: Trump tariffs put global trade system in crisis as countries retaliate and stock markets plummet
  • Legal battle /In Depth: How one acre in Shanghai sparked a 20-year legal battle
  • Stocks /: China markets sink as trade war intensifies

Paetongtarn’s Parliamentary Win of Little Help to Struggling Economy

By Manu Bhaskaran

  • The Thai prime minister comfortably survived a vote of no confidence, suggesting that the marriage of convenience holding her coalition government together is still viable for now
  • The parties in the coalition, however, are still engaged in power struggles, causing political and policy instability as well as impede coherent policy for the rest of the term
  • Distracted as it thus is, the government is not well-placed to address the challenges emanating from a more hostile trade environment and weakening domestic fundamentals

Macro Bite – India : Why RBI Should Cut Fast and Deep

By Priyanka Kishore

  • Downside growth risks dominate following the sweeping tariffs announced by the US, which is India’s largest export partner
  • Negative impact on labour-intensive exports will disproportionately hurt overall GDP growth
  • Growth will be best supported by large and frontloaded rate cuts

Global base oils arb outlook: Week of 7 April

By Iain Pocock

  • US Group II base oils export price-discount to CFR India prices widens further through March 2025 even ahead of imposition of US tariffs and slump in crude oil prices.
  • US Group I brightstock export price flips to rare discount to CFR India price in recent weeks.
  • Ongoing weakness of US export prices points to weaker-than-usual domestic demand.

Global base oils margins outlook: Week of 7 April

By Iain Pocock

  • Global base oils prices face growing upward pressure versus feedstock/diesel prices following slump in crude oil prices.
  • Firming base oils premium points to tightening supply and rising demand, incentivizing refiners to maintain or raise output.
  • Recent slump in crude oil prices reflects concern about slowdown in global economic activity and subsequent drop in demand.

Asia base oils supply outlook: Week of 7 April

By Iain Pocock

  • Asia’s base oils prices resume rise versus feedstock/gasoil prices.
  • Rising margins point to still-firm supply-demand fundamentals at start of Q2 2025.
  • That dynamic could change in coming weeks if economic growth slows, compounding typical seasonal dip in demand from end of second quarter.

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